少しはマシになってるよーな気がする．
なぜマシと言えるのか?
もしマシになってないと仮定すると，
それはあまりにもヒサンである確率が高くなってしまうので．
QED
2420 研究室発．
2430 帰宅．
[今日の素読]
Salsburg, D. 2001.
``
The Lady Tasting Tea
-- How statistics revolutionized science
in the twentieth century''.
Owl Book.
Chapter 13. The Bayesian Heresy
Personal probability
Another Baysian approach appears to be on a much more
soild foundation. This is the concept of personal
probability. The idea has been around since the initial
work on probability by the Bernoullis in the seventeenth
century. In fact, the very word
probability was created to deal with the sense of
personal uncertainty.
Regardless of how the concept of personal probability is
defined exactly, the way in which Bayes's theorem is used
in personal probability seems to match the way in which
most people think. The Baysian approach is to start with
a prior set of probabilities in the mind of a given
person. Next, that person observes or experiments and
produces data. The data are then used to modify the prior
probabilities, producing a posterior set of probabilities:
