ぎょーむ日誌 2003-11-02

2003 年 11 月 02 日 (日)

• 1030 起床． 朝飯． コーヒー．
• どうも時間がうまく使えない． とはいえ， ぎょーむばかりやってるわけにもいかんが． 11 月は …… よろしくない予感として， 統計学授業準備・釧路大会 web site 準備・その他あれこれ， で終ってしまいそうな．
• 1620 北大構内走． すぐに日没． 一時間ほどゆっくりと走る． 体重 71.4kg．
• 1800 自宅発． 1810 研究室着．
• 粕谷さんからメイルいただく． やはり順位相関つかった多変量解析はいろいろあるようで …… ありうるだろうな．

さて、順位相関にもとづく多変量解析ですが、重回帰や分散分析なども含むなら、 Puri, ML & Sen, PK　の Nonparametric methods in general linear modelsという 本があります。

また、検定するなら、問題によっては MRPP (Multiresponse permutation procedures) とか MRBP (Multivariate rabdomized block permutation procedures) は使えないでしょうか。

• 教えていただいた Puri, ML & Sen, PK, 1985, Nonparametric methods in general linear models なる本は絶版か? 出版社 (Wiley) とかのサイトで見つから． Amazon.com いわく ``out of print''． 北大図書館には あるけど． 検定ねえ …… 三中さん， 無理して「統計学化」せずとも別の生きかたもありえるんでは， というご指摘．
• いつものごとく， まとまった進捗はなく 2220 研究室発． 2230 帰宅．
• [今日の素読]
  • Salsburg, D. 2001. `` The Lady Tasting Tea -- How statistics revolutionized science in the twentieth century''. Owl Book.
  • Chapter 18. Does Smoking Cause Cancer?
    • Cornfield's solution
  • An alternative approach is the prospective one. In such a study, a group of individuals is identified in advance. Their smoking histories are carefully recorded, and they are followed to see what will become of them. By 1958, three independent prospective studies had been run. The first (reported by the same Hill and Doll who had done the first retrospective study) involved 50,000 medical doctors in the United Kingdom. Actually, in the Hill and Doll study, the subjects were not followed over a long period of time. Instead, the 50,000 doctors were interviewed about their health habits, including their smoking habits, and followed for five years, as many of them began to come down with lung cancer. Now the evidence did more than suggest a relationship. They were able to divide the doctors into goups depending upon how much they smoked. The doctors who smoked more had greater probabilities of having lung cancer. This was a dose response, the key proof of an effect in pharmacology. In the United States, Hammond and Horn ran a prospective study (published in 1958) on 187,783 men, whom they followed for for months. They also found a dose response.
  • They addressed in two ways the question of whether the opportunity samples were nonrepresentative. They showed the range of patient populations involved, increasing the likelihood that the conclusions held across populations. They also pointed out that, if the cuase and effect relationship holds as a result of fundamental biology, then the patient's different socioeconomic and racial backgrounds would be irrelevant. They reviewed toxicology studies, which showed carcinogenic effects of tobacco smoke on lab animals and tissue clutures.
• [今日の運動]
  • 北大構内走 1620-1720． ストレッチング．
• [今日の食卓]
  • 朝 (1040): 「北欧」バゲット．
  • 昼 (1430): スパゲッティー． タマネギのシチュー．
  • 晩 (2300): マカロニ． タマネギのシチュー．