model { for (i in 1:N.id) { for (y in Year.start:Year.end) { NV[i, y] ~ dpois(nv[i, y]) } } for (i in 1:N.id) { for (y in 1:Year.end) { nv[i, y] <- exp(b[i] * (y - Year.end * 0.5) + i.y[i, y] + common.y[y]) } } Tau.noninformative <- 1.00000E-04 mean.b ~ dnorm(0.00000E+00, Tau.noninformative) for (i in 1:N.id) { b[i] ~ dnorm(mean.b, tau[1]) for (y in Year.start:Year.end) { i.y[i, y] ~ dnorm(i.y[i, y - 1], tau[2]) } i.y[i, 1] ~ dnorm(0.00000E+00, Tau.noninformative) } for (y in 1:Year.end) { common.y[y] ~ dnorm(0.00000E+00, tau[3]) } Sigma.max <- 100 for (k in 1:N.tau) { tau[k] <- 1/(sigma[k] * sigma[k]) sigma[k] ~ dunif(0.00000E+00, Sigma.max) } }