model { Tau.noninformative <- 1.0E-4 for (i in 1:N.id) { Y[1, i] ~ dnorm(0, Tau.noninformative) log.y[1, i] ~ dnorm(0, Tau.noninformative) for (t in 2:N.year) { Y[t, i] ~ dnorm(y[t, i], tau[1]) log(y[t, i]) <- log.y[t, i] log.y[t, i] ~ dnorm(m[t, i], tau[2]) m[t, i] <- log.y[t - 1, i] + beta + r[i] } } beta ~ dnorm(0.0, Tau.noninformative) for (i in 1:N.id) { r[i] ~ dnorm(0.0, tau[3]) } for (k in 1:N.tau) { tau[k] <- 1 / (sd[k] * sd[k]) sd[k] ~ dunif(0, 1.0E+4) } }