model { Hyper.gamma <- 1.0E-2 Tau.error <- 1.0E+1 Tau.noninformative <- 1.0E-4 # observation for (i in 1:N.sample) { Flc[i] ~ dnorm(density.flc[i], Tau.error) density.flc[i] <- exp(log.max) / (1 + exp(-logit.flc[T.flc[i]])) } log.max ~ dnorm(4.0, 0.2) # time change of density for (j in 1:N.id) { #logit.flc[Time.start[j]] ~ dnorm(0, Tau.noninformative) logit.flc[Time.start[j]] ~ dnorm(logit.flc[Time.start[j] + 1], tau) for (t in Time.start[j]:(Time.end[j] - 1)) { # flc logit.flc[t + 1] ~ dnorm(l.flc[t], tau) l.flc[t] <- log(p.flc[t]) - log(1 - p.flc[t]) p.flc[t] <- ( q.flc[t] * (1 - r[t, 1]) + (1 - q.flc[t]) * r[t, 2] ) logit(q.flc[t]) <- logit.flc[t] # rates logit(r[t, 1]) <- b[1] + b[2] * Temp[t] logit(r[t, 2]) <- b[3] + b[4] * Temp[t] } } # parameters for (k in 1:N.b) { b[k] ~ dnorm(0.0, Tau.noninformative) } tau ~ dgamma(Hyper.gamma, Hyper.gamma) }