Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/seaturtle/winbugs2/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 9e+05 iterations (first 1e+05 discarded), n.thin = 2000 n.sims = 1200 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff tau[1] 11.756 1.985 8.189 10.437 11.590 13.020 16.172 1.004 520 tau[2] 700.836 225.972 359.985 535.675 672.600 829.575 1214.075 1.005 400 tau[3] 8.414 2.608 4.599 6.574 8.056 9.669 14.434 1.011 200 a.year[1] -0.041 0.315 -0.657 -0.267 -0.040 0.176 0.557 1.003 840 a.year[2] 0.213 0.273 -0.314 0.021 0.215 0.386 0.758 1.009 230 a.year[3] 0.012 0.273 -0.515 -0.166 0.013 0.181 0.551 1.011 180 a.year[4] -0.424 0.259 -0.941 -0.606 -0.418 -0.246 0.060 1.011 200 a.year[5] 0.058 0.258 -0.472 -0.098 0.048 0.221 0.584 1.017 120 a.year[6] 0.388 0.255 -0.075 0.214 0.378 0.557 0.930 1.011 180 a.year[7] 0.030 0.257 -0.459 -0.138 0.022 0.197 0.559 1.024 85 a.year[8] -0.214 0.247 -0.707 -0.381 -0.214 -0.050 0.273 1.014 140 a.year[9] 0.216 0.252 -0.288 0.056 0.206 0.380 0.723 1.005 590 a.year[10] -0.152 0.252 -0.635 -0.325 -0.153 0.013 0.352 1.007 270 a.year[11] 0.287 0.248 -0.203 0.126 0.270 0.456 0.771 1.000 1200 a.year[12] -0.220 0.249 -0.725 -0.393 -0.220 -0.053 0.246 1.004 530 a.year[13] -0.405 0.258 -0.906 -0.579 -0.411 -0.232 0.077 1.007 440 a.year[14] 0.143 0.238 -0.309 -0.021 0.136 0.310 0.591 1.036 60 a.year[15] 0.602 0.224 0.212 0.447 0.594 0.749 1.042 1.009 210 a.year[16] -0.075 0.211 -0.499 -0.213 -0.076 0.067 0.346 1.002 890 a.year[17] -0.206 0.211 -0.583 -0.349 -0.217 -0.068 0.233 1.002 870 a.year[18] -0.411 0.223 -0.856 -0.556 -0.417 -0.264 0.049 1.019 110 a.year[19] 0.584 0.222 0.146 0.430 0.595 0.741 0.994 1.013 150 a.year[20] -0.344 0.210 -0.755 -0.487 -0.338 -0.206 0.068 1.009 220 a.year[21] 0.227 0.194 -0.159 0.100 0.224 0.361 0.603 1.015 130 a.year[22] -0.611 0.212 -1.037 -0.746 -0.610 -0.461 -0.219 1.030 71 a.year[23] 0.584 0.203 0.188 0.450 0.580 0.720 0.988 1.021 99 a.year[24] -0.401 0.213 -0.841 -0.549 -0.398 -0.261 0.020 1.015 140 a.year[25] 0.212 0.201 -0.160 0.075 0.202 0.342 0.629 1.007 310 a.year[26] 0.278 0.196 -0.092 0.147 0.272 0.410 0.665 1.017 140 a.year[27] -0.393 0.194 -0.771 -0.525 -0.397 -0.268 0.008 1.011 180 a.year[28] -0.174 0.196 -0.561 -0.308 -0.167 -0.045 0.200 1.005 530 a.year[29] 0.169 0.188 -0.194 0.045 0.161 0.299 0.542 1.005 550 a.year[30] -0.043 0.187 -0.400 -0.168 -0.048 0.080 0.315 1.005 380 a.year[31] -0.190 0.193 -0.565 -0.318 -0.185 -0.064 0.165 1.006 550 a.year[32] 0.172 0.180 -0.187 0.051 0.167 0.302 0.525 1.010 330 a.year[33] 0.071 0.182 -0.287 -0.052 0.073 0.195 0.426 1.017 130 a.year[34] 0.047 0.173 -0.302 -0.060 0.048 0.164 0.378 1.016 130 a.year[35] 0.095 0.168 -0.239 -0.020 0.107 0.219 0.415 1.008 270 a.year[36] -0.308 0.175 -0.676 -0.419 -0.303 -0.189 0.010 1.018 220 a.year[37] 0.176 0.181 -0.202 0.057 0.180 0.294 0.510 1.023 130 a.year[38] 0.178 0.174 -0.168 0.063 0.183 0.295 0.518 1.039 63 a.year[39] 0.215 0.166 -0.112 0.109 0.213 0.323 0.541 1.027 80 a.year[40] 0.096 0.171 -0.239 -0.021 0.102 0.214 0.425 1.035 65 a.year[41] 0.000 0.172 -0.338 -0.121 0.003 0.118 0.327 1.030 74 a.year[42] 0.193 0.170 -0.131 0.079 0.193 0.304 0.536 1.042 51 a.year[43] -0.243 0.179 -0.591 -0.363 -0.238 -0.117 0.096 1.039 56 a.year[44] -0.385 0.165 -0.703 -0.495 -0.382 -0.272 -0.066 1.027 83 a.year[45] -0.196 0.163 -0.520 -0.310 -0.198 -0.084 0.119 1.037 65 a.year[46] -0.301 0.171 -0.626 -0.417 -0.306 -0.188 0.044 1.028 81 a.year[47] -0.094 0.163 -0.406 -0.208 -0.092 0.015 0.228 1.026 100 a.year[48] 0.233 0.163 -0.090 0.127 0.237 0.341 0.556 1.014 140 a.year[49] 0.185 0.167 -0.139 0.073 0.187 0.296 0.505 1.001 1200 a.year[50] 0.182 0.171 -0.160 0.068 0.181 0.301 0.528 1.001 1200 a.year[51] 0.263 0.181 -0.103 0.148 0.266 0.387 0.614 1.004 1200 a.year[52] 0.241 0.195 -0.144 0.107 0.241 0.374 0.620 1.016 1100 a.year[53] -0.459 0.232 -0.923 -0.612 -0.469 -0.302 -0.014 1.012 250 a.year[54] -0.147 0.270 -0.657 -0.329 -0.152 0.034 0.404 1.016 240 r[1] -0.300 0.291 -0.862 -0.493 -0.291 -0.110 0.252 1.035 66 r[2] -0.233 0.217 -0.662 -0.382 -0.229 -0.087 0.164 1.039 62 r[3] -0.165 0.153 -0.469 -0.268 -0.163 -0.058 0.127 1.035 68 r[4] -0.098 0.104 -0.310 -0.169 -0.095 -0.028 0.100 1.024 110 r[5] -0.034 0.073 -0.180 -0.081 -0.033 0.011 0.113 1.014 180 r[6] 0.021 0.061 -0.100 -0.019 0.021 0.060 0.144 1.033 65 r[7] 0.069 0.060 -0.044 0.028 0.068 0.110 0.183 1.049 45 r[8] 0.108 0.059 -0.007 0.069 0.106 0.146 0.226 1.042 52 r[9] 0.133 0.057 0.021 0.096 0.134 0.168 0.253 1.033 66 r[10] 0.149 0.055 0.042 0.113 0.150 0.186 0.261 1.021 110 r[11] 0.159 0.054 0.050 0.125 0.160 0.195 0.270 1.009 420 r[12] 0.164 0.054 0.059 0.129 0.165 0.198 0.271 1.007 260 r[13] 0.163 0.055 0.058 0.126 0.165 0.199 0.269 1.011 190 r[14] 0.151 0.054 0.045 0.114 0.152 0.187 0.259 1.012 170 r[15] 0.125 0.052 0.021 0.088 0.123 0.160 0.224 1.013 180 r[16] 0.087 0.052 -0.008 0.051 0.087 0.121 0.186 1.019 150 r[17] 0.042 0.053 -0.059 0.005 0.040 0.079 0.146 1.019 130 r[18] -0.010 0.053 -0.110 -0.046 -0.009 0.025 0.092 1.013 160 r[19] -0.060 0.053 -0.163 -0.095 -0.062 -0.024 0.040 1.007 310 r[20] -0.103 0.054 -0.208 -0.139 -0.102 -0.066 -0.002 1.004 610 r[21] -0.132 0.054 -0.237 -0.167 -0.132 -0.095 -0.028 1.003 680 r[22] -0.144 0.054 -0.252 -0.180 -0.143 -0.106 -0.042 1.003 1000 r[23] -0.136 0.054 -0.241 -0.174 -0.135 -0.100 -0.034 1.003 1200 r[24] -0.111 0.051 -0.214 -0.144 -0.110 -0.076 -0.012 1.002 1200 r[25] -0.080 0.051 -0.177 -0.113 -0.079 -0.045 0.017 1.002 1100 r[26] -0.045 0.052 -0.146 -0.083 -0.045 -0.010 0.059 1.002 870 r[27] -0.017 0.055 -0.118 -0.054 -0.016 0.019 0.096 1.005 380 r[28] -0.004 0.057 -0.116 -0.041 -0.007 0.034 0.115 1.009 210 r[29] -0.009 0.059 -0.120 -0.049 -0.010 0.031 0.111 1.006 300 r[30] -0.026 0.061 -0.139 -0.069 -0.027 0.014 0.100 1.004 640 r[31] -0.042 0.063 -0.159 -0.086 -0.042 0.000 0.085 1.002 1200 r[32] -0.048 0.064 -0.170 -0.090 -0.048 -0.005 0.078 1.012 160 r[33] -0.040 0.067 -0.171 -0.087 -0.037 0.002 0.088 1.044 50 r[34] -0.020 0.081 -0.166 -0.078 -0.019 0.033 0.138 1.088 27 r[35] 0.009 0.110 -0.210 -0.064 0.010 0.082 0.234 1.093 26 r[36] 0.037 0.157 -0.269 -0.070 0.033 0.145 0.339 1.078 30 r[37] -0.174 0.296 -0.713 -0.382 -0.184 0.021 0.402 1.049 46 r[38] -0.176 0.220 -0.593 -0.332 -0.182 -0.029 0.255 1.048 47 r[39] -0.178 0.156 -0.462 -0.289 -0.180 -0.069 0.120 1.040 55 r[40] -0.181 0.105 -0.386 -0.250 -0.183 -0.109 0.019 1.029 76 r[41] -0.183 0.073 -0.326 -0.230 -0.182 -0.133 -0.042 1.017 150 r[42] -0.187 0.059 -0.300 -0.226 -0.187 -0.145 -0.076 1.002 780 r[43] -0.191 0.054 -0.296 -0.227 -0.191 -0.153 -0.089 1.010 190 r[44] -0.187 0.055 -0.301 -0.222 -0.188 -0.151 -0.077 1.028 76 r[45] -0.173 0.055 -0.279 -0.209 -0.172 -0.137 -0.066 1.025 86 r[46] -0.146 0.054 -0.245 -0.183 -0.149 -0.111 -0.035 1.028 80 r[47] -0.110 0.053 -0.213 -0.145 -0.111 -0.075 -0.003 1.018 140 r[48] -0.073 0.054 -0.177 -0.110 -0.072 -0.037 0.029 1.014 270 r[49] -0.037 0.056 -0.142 -0.074 -0.038 0.002 0.064 1.009 460 r[50] -0.004 0.059 -0.117 -0.045 -0.003 0.036 0.103 1.013 240 r[51] 0.023 0.062 -0.100 -0.021 0.023 0.067 0.142 1.019 120 r[52] 0.042 0.067 -0.087 -0.005 0.044 0.091 0.174 1.026 81 r[53] 0.052 0.081 -0.102 -0.004 0.049 0.105 0.213 1.030 69 r[54] 0.058 0.113 -0.161 -0.018 0.058 0.133 0.281 1.024 86 r[55] 0.064 0.161 -0.241 -0.041 0.069 0.172 0.376 1.014 140 r[56] 0.176 0.330 -0.502 -0.036 0.189 0.383 0.851 1.013 280 r[57] 0.168 0.250 -0.344 0.009 0.174 0.325 0.676 1.011 340 r[58] 0.159 0.181 -0.215 0.046 0.162 0.278 0.524 1.007 590 r[59] 0.150 0.126 -0.110 0.067 0.154 0.239 0.395 1.004 1100 r[60] 0.140 0.089 -0.035 0.079 0.143 0.199 0.318 1.008 430 r[61] 0.125 0.070 -0.010 0.078 0.122 0.169 0.267 1.020 130 r[62] 0.103 0.065 -0.021 0.059 0.102 0.144 0.233 1.034 86 r[63] 0.073 0.063 -0.059 0.032 0.072 0.113 0.200 1.038 73 r[64] 0.039 0.062 -0.075 -0.004 0.039 0.080 0.166 1.034 66 r[65] 0.003 0.061 -0.105 -0.038 0.000 0.044 0.126 1.028 76 r[66] -0.033 0.059 -0.151 -0.073 -0.034 0.007 0.079 1.018 110 r[67] -0.066 0.057 -0.180 -0.104 -0.066 -0.027 0.041 1.023 97 r[68] -0.098 0.056 -0.211 -0.133 -0.098 -0.059 0.011 1.027 83 r[69] -0.123 0.056 -0.231 -0.161 -0.122 -0.084 -0.016 1.025 83 r[70] -0.145 0.056 -0.259 -0.181 -0.142 -0.108 -0.039 1.017 120 r[71] -0.163 0.057 -0.283 -0.202 -0.161 -0.125 -0.060 1.007 270 r[72] -0.176 0.057 -0.294 -0.213 -0.175 -0.138 -0.068 1.008 250 r[73] -0.177 0.058 -0.287 -0.213 -0.176 -0.139 -0.067 1.018 110 r[74] -0.164 0.059 -0.279 -0.204 -0.163 -0.124 -0.047 1.033 64 r[75] -0.140 0.058 -0.252 -0.178 -0.142 -0.102 -0.024 1.030 71 r[76] -0.112 0.055 -0.222 -0.147 -0.115 -0.078 0.001 1.017 120 r[77] -0.084 0.056 -0.193 -0.120 -0.085 -0.048 0.022 1.013 160 r[78] -0.055 0.056 -0.166 -0.093 -0.053 -0.017 0.049 1.021 130 r[79] -0.029 0.057 -0.137 -0.066 -0.027 0.008 0.080 1.024 96 r[80] -0.007 0.058 -0.114 -0.046 -0.008 0.030 0.111 1.032 69 r[81] 0.007 0.056 -0.097 -0.032 0.006 0.046 0.116 1.025 88 r[82] 0.021 0.055 -0.090 -0.015 0.021 0.059 0.128 1.021 100 r[83] 0.034 0.054 -0.075 -0.002 0.034 0.071 0.139 1.014 160 r[84] 0.048 0.055 -0.056 0.011 0.047 0.085 0.156 1.012 190 r[85] 0.059 0.052 -0.049 0.025 0.059 0.095 0.158 1.006 330 r[86] 0.058 0.052 -0.043 0.021 0.058 0.093 0.159 1.006 380 r[87] 0.047 0.053 -0.056 0.010 0.046 0.083 0.151 1.007 280 r[88] 0.027 0.054 -0.078 -0.010 0.026 0.063 0.132 1.014 150 r[89] -0.008 0.055 -0.119 -0.044 -0.008 0.028 0.100 1.026 93 r[90] -0.050 0.055 -0.158 -0.086 -0.050 -0.012 0.056 1.034 75 r[91] -0.089 0.054 -0.197 -0.126 -0.091 -0.053 0.018 1.017 120 r[92] -0.119 0.053 -0.221 -0.155 -0.120 -0.084 -0.016 1.016 130 r[93] -0.135 0.053 -0.242 -0.170 -0.135 -0.099 -0.031 1.017 130 r[94] -0.142 0.052 -0.245 -0.178 -0.142 -0.105 -0.042 1.013 190 r[95] -0.144 0.053 -0.250 -0.178 -0.142 -0.106 -0.043 1.013 180 r[96] -0.141 0.056 -0.252 -0.178 -0.139 -0.104 -0.036 1.009 220 r[97] -0.133 0.056 -0.244 -0.171 -0.134 -0.097 -0.025 1.007 270 r[98] -0.120 0.054 -0.225 -0.157 -0.120 -0.083 -0.015 1.005 390 r[99] -0.105 0.054 -0.210 -0.140 -0.104 -0.068 -0.003 1.007 270 r[100] -0.087 0.056 -0.205 -0.123 -0.085 -0.050 0.020 1.009 250 r[101] -0.069 0.058 -0.180 -0.109 -0.069 -0.032 0.043 1.007 330 r[102] -0.048 0.060 -0.158 -0.088 -0.048 -0.011 0.075 1.011 210 r[103] -0.028 0.062 -0.144 -0.070 -0.029 0.012 0.100 1.018 130 r[104] -0.015 0.063 -0.130 -0.058 -0.015 0.029 0.112 1.024 94 r[105] -0.017 0.066 -0.145 -0.060 -0.019 0.026 0.118 1.018 140 r[106] -0.037 0.067 -0.167 -0.079 -0.037 0.004 0.098 1.012 230 r[107] -0.070 0.071 -0.213 -0.121 -0.069 -0.020 0.071 1.010 220 r[108] -0.113 0.090 -0.291 -0.173 -0.114 -0.052 0.058 1.006 450 r[109] -0.161 0.128 -0.412 -0.241 -0.161 -0.076 0.095 1.004 1200 r[110] -0.209 0.182 -0.576 -0.321 -0.207 -0.087 0.153 1.003 1200 r[111] -0.211 0.310 -0.749 -0.434 -0.232 -0.005 0.413 1.190 15 r[112] -0.193 0.238 -0.614 -0.362 -0.200 -0.045 0.292 1.207 14 r[113] -0.175 0.175 -0.480 -0.292 -0.182 -0.064 0.185 1.216 13 r[114] -0.158 0.122 -0.377 -0.237 -0.162 -0.079 0.092 1.212 14 r[115] -0.141 0.085 -0.308 -0.198 -0.147 -0.081 0.025 1.152 18 r[116] -0.123 0.064 -0.241 -0.168 -0.122 -0.079 -0.001 1.051 43 r[117] -0.107 0.057 -0.215 -0.147 -0.109 -0.067 0.004 1.009 220 r[118] -0.089 0.056 -0.195 -0.127 -0.090 -0.052 0.019 1.009 270 r[119] -0.069 0.057 -0.184 -0.108 -0.068 -0.030 0.042 1.029 83 r[120] -0.049 0.059 -0.168 -0.088 -0.049 -0.007 0.062 1.040 66 r[121] -0.028 0.058 -0.146 -0.065 -0.027 0.010 0.078 1.027 90 r[122] -0.005 0.056 -0.124 -0.041 -0.004 0.032 0.101 1.015 160 r[123] 0.021 0.054 -0.089 -0.012 0.022 0.058 0.125 1.016 160 r[124] 0.047 0.054 -0.060 0.013 0.049 0.084 0.151 1.018 110 r[125] 0.072 0.056 -0.033 0.033 0.073 0.108 0.183 1.017 130 r[126] 0.092 0.056 -0.016 0.057 0.092 0.128 0.202 1.019 120 r[127] 0.101 0.055 -0.006 0.063 0.102 0.136 0.210 1.024 91 r[128] 0.097 0.054 -0.017 0.062 0.098 0.133 0.203 1.029 72 r[129] 0.084 0.054 -0.020 0.047 0.084 0.119 0.193 1.033 66 r[130] 0.069 0.055 -0.042 0.034 0.067 0.106 0.179 1.022 100 r[131] 0.058 0.055 -0.057 0.021 0.057 0.096 0.169 1.018 110 r[132] 0.048 0.057 -0.057 0.008 0.049 0.086 0.156 1.023 92 r[133] 0.035 0.056 -0.074 -0.005 0.035 0.073 0.142 1.024 89 r[134] 0.016 0.054 -0.089 -0.020 0.015 0.051 0.125 1.023 89 r[135] -0.010 0.052 -0.112 -0.045 -0.009 0.023 0.094 1.024 88 r[136] -0.046 0.053 -0.152 -0.079 -0.044 -0.012 0.055 1.015 130 r[137] -0.083 0.053 -0.186 -0.117 -0.083 -0.048 0.019 1.007 300 r[138] -0.121 0.053 -0.223 -0.157 -0.121 -0.084 -0.017 1.001 1200 r[139] -0.154 0.053 -0.257 -0.191 -0.153 -0.118 -0.052 1.002 1200 r[140] -0.177 0.051 -0.279 -0.209 -0.177 -0.144 -0.072 1.007 430 r[141] -0.187 0.053 -0.287 -0.221 -0.188 -0.154 -0.085 1.009 290 r[142] -0.184 0.053 -0.282 -0.220 -0.185 -0.147 -0.079 1.009 240 r[143] -0.174 0.053 -0.276 -0.208 -0.174 -0.139 -0.067 1.014 160 r[144] -0.164 0.056 -0.275 -0.204 -0.164 -0.126 -0.058 1.025 110 r[145] -0.156 0.060 -0.272 -0.197 -0.158 -0.115 -0.044 1.027 92 r[146] -0.147 0.060 -0.262 -0.189 -0.147 -0.106 -0.027 1.029 88 r[147] -0.138 0.059 -0.258 -0.179 -0.138 -0.097 -0.022 1.020 120 r[148] -0.122 0.062 -0.246 -0.163 -0.125 -0.081 0.000 1.004 450 r[149] -0.099 0.067 -0.231 -0.148 -0.100 -0.053 0.038 1.001 1200 r[150] -0.070 0.087 -0.234 -0.130 -0.073 -0.011 0.101 1.007 550 r[151] -0.038 0.122 -0.275 -0.120 -0.044 0.045 0.196 1.014 280 r[152] -0.004 0.173 -0.338 -0.115 -0.007 0.109 0.332 1.017 240 r[153] 0.339 0.247 -0.151 0.181 0.342 0.508 0.835 1.007 310 r[154] 0.279 0.182 -0.082 0.157 0.276 0.400 0.636 1.006 330 r[155] 0.218 0.130 -0.048 0.127 0.215 0.310 0.482 1.004 430 r[156] 0.159 0.092 -0.025 0.095 0.159 0.217 0.344 1.003 700 r[157] 0.102 0.069 -0.033 0.054 0.102 0.150 0.232 1.010 340 r[158] 0.050 0.059 -0.068 0.011 0.051 0.090 0.164 1.008 410 r[159] 0.005 0.054 -0.103 -0.031 0.005 0.044 0.109 1.006 320 r[160] -0.031 0.052 -0.129 -0.065 -0.029 0.005 0.065 1.016 130 r[161] -0.058 0.050 -0.155 -0.091 -0.059 -0.023 0.035 1.011 190 r[162] -0.076 0.050 -0.172 -0.108 -0.076 -0.041 0.019 1.011 260 r[163] -0.084 0.051 -0.190 -0.116 -0.085 -0.048 0.018 1.013 210 r[164] -0.081 0.052 -0.180 -0.116 -0.081 -0.047 0.022 1.010 300 r[165] -0.069 0.052 -0.167 -0.105 -0.070 -0.034 0.032 1.003 1200 r[166] -0.050 0.052 -0.150 -0.085 -0.052 -0.015 0.056 1.006 500 r[167] -0.026 0.052 -0.125 -0.059 -0.029 0.010 0.078 1.012 200 r[168] 0.000 0.054 -0.103 -0.038 -0.002 0.034 0.106 1.014 170 r[169] 0.024 0.056 -0.086 -0.014 0.021 0.064 0.128 1.015 140 r[170] 0.046 0.058 -0.065 0.007 0.044 0.088 0.157 1.016 140 r[171] 0.064 0.057 -0.047 0.027 0.063 0.104 0.174 1.010 310 r[172] 0.075 0.059 -0.042 0.036 0.075 0.115 0.190 1.009 340 r[173] 0.076 0.064 -0.046 0.032 0.077 0.121 0.197 1.004 550 r[174] 0.070 0.081 -0.085 0.017 0.071 0.124 0.232 1.005 370 r[175] 0.060 0.112 -0.150 -0.015 0.060 0.137 0.281 1.006 310 r[176] 0.048 0.160 -0.264 -0.065 0.047 0.154 0.359 1.007 280 r[177] 0.313 0.257 -0.174 0.129 0.311 0.492 0.804 1.017 180 r[178] 0.273 0.191 -0.093 0.129 0.266 0.404 0.648 1.021 150 r[179] 0.234 0.136 -0.013 0.134 0.232 0.325 0.513 1.027 120 r[180] 0.195 0.094 0.032 0.127 0.188 0.258 0.386 1.032 89 r[181] 0.152 0.067 0.024 0.104 0.151 0.197 0.284 1.033 75 r[182] 0.108 0.057 -0.009 0.070 0.110 0.145 0.217 1.028 95 r[183] 0.065 0.056 -0.047 0.029 0.067 0.102 0.174 1.012 160 r[184] 0.028 0.057 -0.083 -0.011 0.026 0.066 0.136 1.003 550 r[185] -0.002 0.055 -0.109 -0.040 -0.003 0.035 0.106 1.003 1200 r[186] -0.022 0.053 -0.133 -0.055 -0.022 0.014 0.082 1.016 1200 r[187] -0.033 0.053 -0.148 -0.066 -0.032 0.002 0.068 1.018 1200 r[188] -0.033 0.052 -0.142 -0.065 -0.032 0.000 0.068 1.008 1200 r[189] -0.026 0.051 -0.126 -0.058 -0.025 0.008 0.074 1.003 640 r[190] -0.008 0.052 -0.106 -0.042 -0.009 0.025 0.094 1.004 510 r[191] 0.023 0.053 -0.074 -0.012 0.019 0.060 0.129 1.012 250 r[192] 0.058 0.055 -0.051 0.019 0.059 0.096 0.170 1.017 150 r[193] 0.093 0.058 -0.017 0.054 0.093 0.131 0.207 1.021 110 r[194] 0.116 0.060 0.002 0.074 0.115 0.153 0.240 1.018 120 r[195] 0.121 0.062 0.001 0.078 0.120 0.161 0.246 1.018 120 r[196] 0.107 0.065 -0.021 0.062 0.108 0.151 0.233 1.014 160 r[197] 0.079 0.077 -0.080 0.027 0.078 0.132 0.222 1.006 300 r[198] 0.044 0.105 -0.159 -0.024 0.040 0.114 0.242 1.002 880 r[199] 0.005 0.148 -0.280 -0.092 0.001 0.106 0.300 1.001 1200 x[1] 5.231 0.447 4.358 4.929 5.214 5.529 6.134 1.011 250 x[2] 4.998 0.284 4.441 4.808 4.994 5.182 5.590 1.002 1200 x[3] 4.833 0.212 4.418 4.690 4.836 4.969 5.265 1.016 150 x[4] 4.735 0.201 4.351 4.593 4.733 4.874 5.127 1.041 55 x[5] 4.701 0.205 4.300 4.555 4.707 4.843 5.088 1.051 47 x[6] 4.722 0.205 4.318 4.577 4.730 4.867 5.097 1.053 49 x[7] 4.791 0.199 4.395 4.662 4.800 4.933 5.157 1.051 55 x[8] 4.899 0.193 4.489 4.775 4.905 5.028 5.239 1.047 59 x[9] 5.032 0.187 4.625 4.916 5.039 5.164 5.363 1.043 65 x[10] 5.182 0.182 4.804 5.063 5.190 5.310 5.499 1.038 71 x[11] 5.341 0.176 4.996 5.221 5.350 5.470 5.655 1.033 81 x[12] 5.505 0.169 5.158 5.393 5.511 5.625 5.809 1.024 110 x[13] 5.669 0.164 5.327 5.561 5.676 5.777 5.971 1.013 180 x[14] 5.820 0.163 5.484 5.719 5.825 5.924 6.121 1.005 400 x[15] 5.944 0.163 5.612 5.836 5.943 6.056 6.261 1.001 1200 x[16] 6.031 0.163 5.711 5.920 6.030 6.146 6.342 1.000 1200 x[17] 6.073 0.164 5.761 5.960 6.069 6.180 6.400 1.008 960 x[18] 6.063 0.164 5.765 5.951 6.059 6.172 6.393 1.024 320 x[19] 6.003 0.164 5.689 5.891 6.003 6.107 6.351 1.035 190 x[20] 5.900 0.166 5.579 5.794 5.896 6.003 6.249 1.033 140 x[21] 5.769 0.169 5.422 5.657 5.763 5.878 6.093 1.027 110 x[22] 5.625 0.173 5.260 5.513 5.623 5.741 5.944 1.025 93 x[23] 5.489 0.177 5.108 5.380 5.497 5.606 5.811 1.024 86 x[24] 5.377 0.179 5.001 5.260 5.383 5.494 5.708 1.026 79 x[25] 5.298 0.179 4.949 5.170 5.299 5.425 5.624 1.029 71 x[26] 5.252 0.177 4.924 5.117 5.257 5.380 5.583 1.033 64 x[27] 5.236 0.174 4.909 5.110 5.236 5.363 5.570 1.041 55 x[28] 5.232 0.173 4.901 5.113 5.232 5.349 5.566 1.054 45 x[29] 5.223 0.174 4.888 5.101 5.219 5.342 5.555 1.068 37 x[30] 5.198 0.177 4.882 5.081 5.189 5.315 5.560 1.075 34 x[31] 5.156 0.183 4.816 5.040 5.146 5.277 5.535 1.058 40 x[32] 5.108 0.191 4.744 4.981 5.096 5.230 5.513 1.035 60 x[33] 5.068 0.201 4.675 4.933 5.055 5.203 5.478 1.018 120 x[34] 5.049 0.217 4.637 4.901 5.045 5.196 5.468 1.015 190 x[35] 5.058 0.256 4.555 4.884 5.055 5.237 5.571 1.036 73 x[36] 5.095 0.349 4.413 4.850 5.099 5.331 5.756 1.064 39 x[37] 6.793 0.489 5.909 6.442 6.796 7.128 7.776 1.042 51 x[38] 6.617 0.311 6.027 6.406 6.615 6.832 7.222 1.030 70 x[39] 6.438 0.217 6.016 6.295 6.433 6.581 6.877 1.020 120 x[40] 6.257 0.189 5.883 6.130 6.262 6.381 6.612 1.019 130 x[41] 6.075 0.186 5.717 5.946 6.076 6.201 6.431 1.025 83 x[42] 5.888 0.186 5.528 5.769 5.883 6.017 6.263 1.031 68 x[43] 5.697 0.184 5.336 5.577 5.696 5.819 6.066 1.035 60 x[44] 5.510 0.182 5.138 5.392 5.509 5.627 5.861 1.041 52 x[45] 5.337 0.181 4.961 5.214 5.337 5.458 5.680 1.045 49 x[46] 5.191 0.181 4.809 5.072 5.193 5.310 5.535 1.049 49 x[47] 5.081 0.181 4.703 4.965 5.079 5.197 5.431 1.054 49 x[48] 5.008 0.181 4.640 4.897 5.008 5.121 5.371 1.055 50 x[49] 4.971 0.180 4.621 4.850 4.972 5.077 5.336 1.044 58 x[50] 4.967 0.181 4.631 4.840 4.963 5.087 5.326 1.026 83 x[51] 4.990 0.186 4.642 4.852 4.985 5.116 5.355 1.011 170 x[52] 5.032 0.196 4.657 4.895 5.034 5.163 5.429 1.006 850 x[53] 5.084 0.215 4.654 4.935 5.087 5.236 5.491 1.007 1200 x[54] 5.142 0.262 4.636 4.952 5.151 5.331 5.645 1.013 220 x[55] 5.206 0.367 4.516 4.938 5.211 5.475 5.911 1.016 140 x[56] 5.147 0.583 3.993 4.774 5.143 5.555 6.206 1.016 1200 x[57] 5.315 0.379 4.562 5.069 5.316 5.591 5.999 1.015 730 x[58] 5.475 0.263 4.929 5.315 5.480 5.648 5.995 1.024 130 x[59] 5.625 0.219 5.201 5.486 5.630 5.768 6.047 1.032 70 x[60] 5.765 0.208 5.333 5.636 5.773 5.914 6.143 1.036 59 x[61] 5.890 0.202 5.456 5.763 5.903 6.035 6.257 1.033 64 x[62] 5.993 0.196 5.572 5.870 6.009 6.124 6.349 1.029 72 x[63] 6.066 0.191 5.672 5.944 6.071 6.201 6.410 1.027 76 x[64] 6.105 0.186 5.740 5.985 6.104 6.231 6.482 1.027 79 x[65] 6.108 0.184 5.765 5.976 6.100 6.234 6.479 1.030 80 x[66] 6.075 0.182 5.747 5.953 6.060 6.200 6.439 1.029 89 x[67] 6.009 0.179 5.684 5.889 6.002 6.129 6.368 1.024 100 x[68] 5.911 0.178 5.566 5.792 5.911 6.019 6.271 1.015 150 x[69] 5.788 0.176 5.412 5.673 5.794 5.901 6.131 1.008 250 x[70] 5.643 0.174 5.267 5.533 5.650 5.759 5.979 1.004 520 x[71] 5.479 0.172 5.116 5.367 5.488 5.596 5.802 1.004 1200 x[72] 5.303 0.172 4.965 5.193 5.313 5.421 5.629 1.005 1200 x[73] 5.127 0.173 4.791 5.011 5.135 5.249 5.444 1.005 1200 x[74] 4.963 0.176 4.636 4.837 4.965 5.093 5.291 1.011 220 x[75] 4.823 0.180 4.484 4.698 4.822 4.952 5.163 1.022 93 x[76] 4.711 0.183 4.356 4.586 4.710 4.836 5.068 1.034 62 x[77] 4.627 0.183 4.281 4.500 4.628 4.745 4.996 1.045 49 x[78] 4.572 0.182 4.223 4.450 4.575 4.687 4.939 1.050 45 x[79] 4.543 0.180 4.189 4.427 4.540 4.660 4.899 1.053 45 x[80] 4.535 0.180 4.169 4.413 4.533 4.658 4.882 1.051 48 x[81] 4.542 0.179 4.175 4.423 4.546 4.659 4.896 1.049 51 x[82] 4.563 0.177 4.195 4.443 4.568 4.682 4.902 1.044 57 x[83] 4.596 0.172 4.222 4.480 4.602 4.715 4.916 1.040 62 x[84] 4.644 0.169 4.283 4.540 4.647 4.759 4.946 1.033 75 x[85] 4.703 0.168 4.349 4.595 4.709 4.821 5.005 1.029 89 x[86] 4.760 0.168 4.405 4.652 4.763 4.875 5.081 1.022 120 x[87] 4.807 0.170 4.462 4.695 4.807 4.917 5.138 1.015 160 x[88] 4.834 0.172 4.490 4.722 4.828 4.947 5.180 1.008 240 x[89] 4.826 0.175 4.502 4.705 4.820 4.942 5.184 1.006 310 x[90] 4.776 0.176 4.456 4.651 4.767 4.892 5.137 1.007 280 x[91] 4.687 0.177 4.368 4.557 4.681 4.807 5.045 1.012 200 x[92] 4.567 0.178 4.231 4.440 4.561 4.689 4.923 1.018 170 x[93] 4.432 0.178 4.082 4.315 4.429 4.552 4.788 1.023 140 x[94] 4.290 0.177 3.921 4.174 4.286 4.401 4.637 1.026 120 x[95] 4.146 0.177 3.794 4.031 4.146 4.261 4.493 1.031 93 x[96] 4.004 0.179 3.649 3.888 4.005 4.117 4.356 1.038 72 x[97] 3.871 0.185 3.500 3.756 3.873 3.993 4.222 1.045 58 x[98] 3.751 0.190 3.362 3.625 3.752 3.881 4.112 1.048 53 x[99] 3.646 0.192 3.263 3.521 3.645 3.773 4.020 1.049 50 x[100] 3.560 0.192 3.176 3.427 3.554 3.689 3.941 1.051 47 x[101] 3.490 0.191 3.121 3.360 3.489 3.612 3.878 1.047 50 x[102] 3.442 0.189 3.074 3.319 3.444 3.561 3.813 1.036 62 x[103] 3.414 0.190 3.030 3.288 3.414 3.544 3.766 1.023 93 x[104] 3.400 0.191 3.015 3.276 3.402 3.530 3.765 1.012 160 x[105] 3.383 0.196 2.998 3.252 3.383 3.513 3.772 1.007 280 x[106] 3.346 0.205 2.950 3.212 3.354 3.480 3.763 1.009 380 x[107] 3.276 0.214 2.836 3.137 3.284 3.416 3.688 1.016 310 x[108] 3.162 0.228 2.677 3.018 3.176 3.311 3.593 1.025 210 x[109] 3.002 0.275 2.427 2.817 3.026 3.194 3.495 1.016 240 x[110] 2.793 0.389 1.991 2.546 2.817 3.063 3.539 1.005 470 x[111] 5.304 0.547 4.260 4.923 5.302 5.690 6.297 1.198 15 x[112] 5.111 0.344 4.489 4.853 5.101 5.362 5.758 1.147 19 x[113] 4.937 0.223 4.540 4.781 4.928 5.087 5.398 1.048 51 x[114] 4.779 0.178 4.439 4.655 4.776 4.896 5.128 1.002 1200 x[115] 4.637 0.175 4.297 4.512 4.641 4.755 4.978 1.039 56 x[116] 4.514 0.179 4.176 4.386 4.514 4.635 4.849 1.078 30 x[117] 4.407 0.180 4.058 4.286 4.406 4.530 4.746 1.094 26 x[118] 4.318 0.178 3.983 4.199 4.317 4.441 4.654 1.088 28 x[119] 4.250 0.176 3.903 4.131 4.252 4.370 4.585 1.065 36 x[120] 4.201 0.177 3.848 4.078 4.202 4.318 4.548 1.041 54 x[121] 4.173 0.180 3.833 4.051 4.181 4.293 4.549 1.027 77 x[122] 4.168 0.184 3.796 4.051 4.176 4.288 4.533 1.021 95 x[123] 4.190 0.187 3.809 4.076 4.202 4.311 4.561 1.020 120 x[124] 4.237 0.187 3.834 4.122 4.250 4.361 4.596 1.021 140 x[125] 4.309 0.186 3.903 4.200 4.309 4.434 4.654 1.022 170 x[126] 4.400 0.185 4.021 4.283 4.409 4.527 4.736 1.016 230 x[127] 4.501 0.184 4.130 4.379 4.506 4.633 4.837 1.009 270 x[128] 4.599 0.182 4.250 4.474 4.598 4.726 4.931 1.012 210 x[129] 4.683 0.179 4.350 4.563 4.679 4.807 5.017 1.021 130 x[130] 4.753 0.176 4.408 4.632 4.757 4.866 5.100 1.030 89 x[131] 4.811 0.175 4.488 4.687 4.811 4.920 5.180 1.032 74 x[132] 4.859 0.176 4.529 4.734 4.859 4.978 5.218 1.035 64 x[133] 4.893 0.179 4.550 4.776 4.892 5.007 5.272 1.040 55 x[134] 4.909 0.181 4.545 4.795 4.910 5.020 5.280 1.044 50 x[135] 4.899 0.183 4.541 4.780 4.903 5.016 5.269 1.045 48 x[136] 4.853 0.183 4.463 4.738 4.859 4.972 5.208 1.043 50 x[137] 4.770 0.184 4.379 4.651 4.778 4.892 5.120 1.041 53 x[138] 4.649 0.185 4.277 4.525 4.655 4.772 4.999 1.038 57 x[139] 4.495 0.185 4.128 4.370 4.493 4.624 4.850 1.034 64 x[140] 4.319 0.184 3.985 4.190 4.314 4.444 4.695 1.029 73 x[141] 4.131 0.183 3.798 3.997 4.127 4.251 4.489 1.024 86 x[142] 3.947 0.181 3.615 3.818 3.944 4.071 4.302 1.020 110 x[143] 3.774 0.177 3.435 3.651 3.774 3.895 4.122 1.016 170 x[144] 3.610 0.173 3.278 3.494 3.613 3.732 3.930 1.011 470 x[145] 3.453 0.173 3.102 3.341 3.465 3.571 3.770 1.006 1200 x[146] 3.306 0.178 2.951 3.188 3.308 3.432 3.641 1.005 1100 x[147] 3.168 0.187 2.799 3.035 3.171 3.296 3.538 1.009 330 x[148] 3.045 0.198 2.638 2.908 3.051 3.177 3.434 1.014 230 x[149] 2.946 0.211 2.504 2.801 2.953 3.090 3.361 1.013 250 x[150] 2.876 0.231 2.436 2.716 2.889 3.030 3.330 1.008 470 x[151] 2.838 0.284 2.290 2.630 2.840 3.045 3.391 1.004 1200 x[152] 2.834 0.397 2.063 2.554 2.834 3.113 3.619 1.008 910 x[153] 6.064 0.400 5.269 5.796 6.069 6.328 6.887 1.018 160 x[154] 6.342 0.266 5.825 6.172 6.337 6.521 6.862 1.020 160 x[155] 6.561 0.199 6.166 6.419 6.565 6.700 6.954 1.011 190 x[156] 6.720 0.180 6.385 6.591 6.716 6.838 7.098 1.010 280 x[157] 6.821 0.179 6.493 6.705 6.817 6.938 7.204 1.020 370 x[158] 6.871 0.183 6.528 6.742 6.865 6.990 7.263 1.024 330 x[159] 6.877 0.187 6.528 6.750 6.870 6.989 7.263 1.022 240 x[160] 6.846 0.190 6.481 6.719 6.842 6.963 7.228 1.024 140 x[161] 6.788 0.190 6.405 6.666 6.781 6.914 7.171 1.027 94 x[162] 6.712 0.188 6.323 6.594 6.706 6.838 7.096 1.034 68 x[163] 6.628 0.186 6.242 6.513 6.623 6.758 6.999 1.047 50 x[164] 6.547 0.182 6.175 6.425 6.545 6.674 6.905 1.062 39 x[165] 6.477 0.177 6.121 6.352 6.479 6.601 6.811 1.070 35 x[166] 6.427 0.171 6.095 6.308 6.429 6.551 6.751 1.063 38 x[167] 6.402 0.166 6.065 6.289 6.404 6.513 6.716 1.052 46 x[168] 6.402 0.162 6.076 6.295 6.404 6.512 6.721 1.038 63 x[169] 6.426 0.162 6.113 6.311 6.423 6.537 6.747 1.023 110 x[170] 6.472 0.167 6.159 6.356 6.467 6.584 6.812 1.010 240 x[171] 6.536 0.175 6.200 6.423 6.533 6.647 6.892 1.003 550 x[172] 6.611 0.185 6.251 6.492 6.605 6.726 6.993 1.001 1200 x[173] 6.687 0.196 6.304 6.558 6.675 6.815 7.081 1.004 1200 x[174] 6.757 0.215 6.360 6.614 6.747 6.900 7.171 1.011 670 x[175] 6.817 0.259 6.332 6.641 6.811 6.992 7.322 1.015 310 x[176] 6.865 0.357 6.190 6.621 6.868 7.104 7.600 1.013 220 x[177] 6.494 0.409 5.722 6.198 6.502 6.789 7.248 1.019 110 x[178] 6.767 0.268 6.276 6.577 6.771 6.945 7.322 1.019 110 x[179] 7.001 0.205 6.623 6.857 6.990 7.128 7.449 1.020 130 x[180] 7.196 0.194 6.850 7.067 7.188 7.304 7.647 1.028 130 x[181] 7.348 0.197 6.975 7.215 7.342 7.460 7.795 1.042 90 x[182] 7.456 0.197 7.097 7.328 7.451 7.560 7.916 1.054 62 x[183] 7.521 0.192 7.159 7.392 7.514 7.629 7.960 1.061 47 x[184] 7.549 0.188 7.186 7.425 7.546 7.660 7.950 1.060 41 x[185] 7.547 0.185 7.178 7.428 7.543 7.659 7.926 1.058 40 x[186] 7.524 0.180 7.155 7.411 7.523 7.642 7.871 1.055 41 x[187] 7.491 0.177 7.146 7.374 7.485 7.616 7.822 1.054 42 x[188] 7.458 0.174 7.126 7.342 7.449 7.581 7.801 1.050 45 x[189] 7.433 0.171 7.114 7.313 7.427 7.543 7.781 1.046 51 x[190] 7.425 0.169 7.101 7.310 7.422 7.535 7.777 1.044 59 x[191] 7.448 0.169 7.119 7.330 7.450 7.557 7.796 1.036 79 x[192] 7.506 0.168 7.175 7.395 7.504 7.619 7.839 1.023 130 x[193] 7.599 0.170 7.270 7.485 7.596 7.709 7.932 1.010 330 x[194] 7.715 0.175 7.374 7.598 7.712 7.831 8.073 1.002 1200 x[195] 7.836 0.184 7.489 7.709 7.832 7.955 8.219 1.000 1200 x[196] 7.943 0.192 7.589 7.816 7.934 8.063 8.334 1.004 560 x[197] 8.022 0.206 7.626 7.892 8.018 8.156 8.457 1.012 260 x[198] 8.066 0.242 7.605 7.902 8.065 8.224 8.550 1.018 220 x[199] 8.071 0.329 7.445 7.853 8.070 8.293 8.714 1.012 290 deviance 1586.436 20.659 1550.000 1571.000 1586.000 1600.000 1629.000 1.000 1200 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 180.5 and DIC = 1767.0 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).