Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/cao_alpinia/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 4000 iterations (first 2000 discarded), n.thin = 5 n.sims = 1200 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff beta[1] 6.850 0.031 6.794 6.829 6.848 6.869 6.918 1.050 68 beta[2] 0.000 0.002 -0.004 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.004 1.056 48 beta[3] 0.050 0.005 0.041 0.047 0.050 0.054 0.061 1.004 500 beta[4] 0.100 0.005 0.092 0.097 0.100 0.104 0.110 1.000 1200 beta[5] 0.056 0.031 -0.010 0.038 0.058 0.077 0.113 1.029 280 beta[6] -0.107 0.040 -0.183 -0.133 -0.107 -0.080 -0.034 1.042 110 beta[7] 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 1.000 1200 beta[8] 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 1.004 1200 beta[9] 0.002 0.003 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.008 1.109 27 tau[1] 58.379 1.235 56.040 57.510 58.400 59.180 60.790 1.003 700 tau[2] 27.376 3.365 21.199 25.057 27.195 29.502 34.511 1.006 640 re[1] 0.002 0.040 -0.080 -0.024 0.005 0.028 0.074 1.004 1200 re[2] 0.145 0.058 0.036 0.106 0.145 0.187 0.251 1.010 230 re[3] -0.217 0.042 -0.304 -0.244 -0.215 -0.189 -0.137 1.004 1200 re[4] -0.060 0.049 -0.155 -0.094 -0.059 -0.026 0.030 1.007 1000 re[5] -0.106 0.045 -0.192 -0.137 -0.108 -0.078 -0.016 1.054 47 re[6] -0.044 0.051 -0.147 -0.076 -0.045 -0.011 0.054 1.070 36 re[7] 0.126 0.042 0.045 0.096 0.125 0.153 0.214 1.079 31 re[8] 0.011 0.040 -0.064 -0.016 0.009 0.036 0.094 1.071 38 re[9] -0.003 0.038 -0.081 -0.027 -0.003 0.024 0.068 1.020 130 re[10] 0.105 0.039 0.026 0.080 0.104 0.130 0.182 1.035 85 re[11] 0.345 0.041 0.261 0.317 0.345 0.372 0.423 1.005 1200 re[12] -0.182 0.049 -0.269 -0.217 -0.184 -0.152 -0.074 1.096 28 re[13] -0.197 0.037 -0.271 -0.222 -0.197 -0.172 -0.123 1.045 61 re[14] 0.082 0.044 -0.007 0.053 0.083 0.111 0.170 1.005 1200 re[15] -0.075 0.040 -0.154 -0.102 -0.075 -0.045 0.001 1.009 1200 re[16] 0.058 0.038 -0.017 0.035 0.060 0.082 0.127 1.021 160 re[17] 0.094 0.042 0.016 0.065 0.093 0.121 0.182 1.081 34 re[18] 0.013 0.042 -0.065 -0.016 0.012 0.039 0.101 1.085 32 re[19] -0.189 0.052 -0.290 -0.223 -0.190 -0.154 -0.082 1.098 27 re[20] 0.425 0.046 0.341 0.394 0.422 0.453 0.521 1.102 25 re[21] -0.149 0.037 -0.223 -0.175 -0.148 -0.122 -0.078 1.006 890 re[22] -0.050 0.038 -0.124 -0.076 -0.052 -0.026 0.026 1.070 42 re[23] -0.057 0.039 -0.129 -0.086 -0.057 -0.031 0.019 1.072 37 re[24] -0.083 0.038 -0.154 -0.109 -0.084 -0.059 -0.004 1.065 48 re[25] -0.206 0.052 -0.301 -0.241 -0.208 -0.175 -0.093 1.099 27 re[26] 0.096 0.042 0.008 0.070 0.097 0.125 0.175 1.057 48 re[27] 0.101 0.039 0.017 0.076 0.104 0.126 0.173 1.044 66 re[28] 0.034 0.038 -0.049 0.009 0.035 0.059 0.105 1.043 64 re[29] -0.224 0.047 -0.324 -0.253 -0.220 -0.192 -0.136 1.070 42 re[30] 0.073 0.044 -0.017 0.045 0.075 0.104 0.161 1.005 1200 re[31] 0.295 0.040 0.212 0.269 0.295 0.322 0.368 1.007 760 re[32] 0.261 0.052 0.151 0.228 0.262 0.296 0.358 1.012 570 re[33] 0.108 0.045 0.015 0.079 0.110 0.137 0.190 1.050 53 re[34] -0.334 0.046 -0.441 -0.359 -0.332 -0.304 -0.258 1.006 1100 re[35] 0.020 0.044 -0.071 -0.008 0.021 0.051 0.105 1.013 380 re[36] -0.010 0.044 -0.100 -0.040 -0.007 0.019 0.072 1.008 1200 re[37] -0.183 0.038 -0.262 -0.208 -0.182 -0.158 -0.113 1.031 100 re[38] -0.170 0.046 -0.256 -0.201 -0.171 -0.142 -0.071 1.097 29 re[39] 0.223 0.049 0.133 0.189 0.218 0.252 0.332 1.068 34 re[40] 0.079 0.040 -0.006 0.053 0.080 0.107 0.154 1.050 63 re[41] 0.117 0.038 0.040 0.093 0.118 0.142 0.189 1.028 110 re[42] 0.023 0.038 -0.055 -0.001 0.024 0.047 0.095 1.008 600 re[43] 0.023 0.046 -0.077 -0.005 0.028 0.056 0.107 1.046 66 re[44] 0.073 0.037 -0.006 0.049 0.073 0.098 0.140 1.027 120 re[45] 0.031 0.040 -0.052 0.007 0.033 0.057 0.106 1.045 68 re[46] -0.064 0.042 -0.151 -0.092 -0.061 -0.034 0.013 1.004 1200 re[47] -0.173 0.045 -0.263 -0.202 -0.171 -0.144 -0.090 1.005 780 re[48] -0.114 0.058 -0.233 -0.149 -0.110 -0.075 -0.004 1.009 550 re[49] -0.149 0.050 -0.241 -0.182 -0.151 -0.119 -0.047 1.097 28 re[50] -0.161 0.053 -0.261 -0.198 -0.162 -0.127 -0.050 1.106 25 re[51] -0.165 0.052 -0.261 -0.199 -0.168 -0.134 -0.057 1.082 32 re[52] 0.101 0.037 0.025 0.076 0.102 0.127 0.171 1.030 110 re[53] 0.127 0.044 0.045 0.099 0.127 0.155 0.219 1.042 52 re[54] 0.057 0.038 -0.021 0.033 0.059 0.082 0.130 1.043 76 re[55] 0.237 0.043 0.158 0.207 0.238 0.265 0.320 1.062 37 re[56] -0.073 0.043 -0.172 -0.097 -0.070 -0.042 0.002 1.004 750 re[57] -0.077 0.045 -0.178 -0.103 -0.073 -0.046 0.000 1.006 980 re[58] -0.017 0.044 -0.119 -0.042 -0.013 0.014 0.057 1.013 490 re[59] -0.136 0.049 -0.227 -0.170 -0.139 -0.106 -0.034 1.083 33 re[60] -0.006 0.045 -0.090 -0.037 -0.009 0.021 0.088 1.081 34 re[61] 0.163 0.054 0.066 0.126 0.161 0.197 0.269 1.094 28 re[62] 0.164 0.041 0.090 0.135 0.161 0.192 0.248 1.054 43 re[63] 0.141 0.043 0.062 0.113 0.140 0.167 0.231 1.047 47 re[64] 0.075 0.039 -0.003 0.049 0.074 0.101 0.154 1.047 61 re[65] 0.066 0.037 -0.008 0.042 0.067 0.091 0.138 1.035 78 re[66] 0.090 0.036 0.018 0.067 0.091 0.115 0.156 1.020 170 re[67] -0.149 0.038 -0.226 -0.175 -0.148 -0.124 -0.079 1.011 380 re[68] -0.013 0.052 -0.118 -0.048 -0.012 0.023 0.088 1.006 590 re[69] 0.092 0.038 0.011 0.069 0.094 0.117 0.160 1.047 79 re[70] 0.156 0.039 0.075 0.132 0.157 0.183 0.228 1.048 90 re[71] 0.005 0.037 -0.070 -0.020 0.007 0.032 0.071 1.013 210 re[72] -0.142 0.042 -0.227 -0.169 -0.140 -0.111 -0.063 1.022 140 re[73] 0.052 0.039 -0.027 0.024 0.051 0.080 0.133 1.025 120 re[74] 0.049 0.037 -0.023 0.023 0.050 0.075 0.123 1.015 150 re[75] 0.250 0.041 0.170 0.223 0.249 0.277 0.335 1.015 140 re[76] 0.112 0.044 0.027 0.081 0.113 0.142 0.195 1.035 89 re[77] -0.042 0.045 -0.129 -0.072 -0.040 -0.010 0.044 1.028 120 re[78] -0.177 0.037 -0.247 -0.202 -0.176 -0.152 -0.107 1.010 370 re[79] 0.268 0.038 0.199 0.243 0.267 0.293 0.343 1.014 150 re[80] 0.108 0.044 0.030 0.079 0.107 0.135 0.196 1.025 98 re[81] -0.062 0.037 -0.132 -0.086 -0.061 -0.038 0.008 1.013 190 re[82] 0.076 0.078 -0.078 0.022 0.077 0.127 0.225 1.046 61 re[83] 0.135 0.053 0.033 0.098 0.132 0.171 0.236 1.028 100 re[84] -0.188 0.036 -0.257 -0.213 -0.188 -0.165 -0.112 1.010 210 re[85] -0.131 0.035 -0.199 -0.155 -0.132 -0.108 -0.063 1.005 460 re[86] -0.023 0.038 -0.094 -0.049 -0.025 0.002 0.053 1.020 160 re[87] 0.141 0.038 0.071 0.115 0.141 0.165 0.220 1.026 97 re[88] -0.113 0.036 -0.181 -0.137 -0.114 -0.091 -0.038 1.007 300 re[89] 0.144 0.038 0.073 0.118 0.146 0.170 0.221 1.024 280 re[90] 0.416 0.048 0.322 0.384 0.417 0.450 0.512 1.033 85 re[91] 0.097 0.053 -0.013 0.064 0.098 0.134 0.198 1.040 70 re[92] 0.080 0.037 0.006 0.055 0.082 0.105 0.155 1.011 230 re[93] -0.166 0.050 -0.263 -0.198 -0.166 -0.134 -0.069 1.022 94 re[94] -0.189 0.038 -0.263 -0.216 -0.190 -0.162 -0.114 1.011 240 re[95] -0.320 0.041 -0.395 -0.350 -0.320 -0.293 -0.234 1.018 190 re[96] -0.246 0.049 -0.345 -0.279 -0.243 -0.213 -0.156 1.039 86 re[97] 0.310 0.045 0.226 0.279 0.309 0.342 0.404 1.024 120 re[98] 0.187 0.053 0.086 0.149 0.185 0.224 0.295 1.058 64 re[99] 0.293 0.058 0.174 0.255 0.294 0.334 0.406 1.052 57 re[100] 0.135 0.042 0.049 0.105 0.136 0.164 0.215 1.045 80 re[101] -0.412 0.053 -0.509 -0.447 -0.414 -0.372 -0.311 1.028 85 re[102] -0.178 0.040 -0.250 -0.206 -0.180 -0.152 -0.094 1.020 140 re[103] 0.225 0.041 0.146 0.197 0.225 0.251 0.301 1.023 95 re[104] -0.383 0.041 -0.461 -0.410 -0.385 -0.356 -0.302 1.019 110 re[105] -0.084 0.033 -0.146 -0.106 -0.085 -0.063 -0.012 1.010 230 re[106] -0.172 0.043 -0.255 -0.202 -0.173 -0.144 -0.089 1.032 70 re[107] 0.011 0.044 -0.073 -0.018 0.009 0.040 0.104 1.037 79 re[108] -0.123 0.040 -0.193 -0.153 -0.123 -0.097 -0.042 1.019 170 re[109] -0.347 0.038 -0.418 -0.374 -0.347 -0.322 -0.272 1.023 95 re[110] -0.191 0.064 -0.313 -0.235 -0.190 -0.148 -0.072 1.040 66 re[111] 0.324 0.037 0.256 0.299 0.323 0.348 0.401 1.011 240 re[112] -0.118 0.041 -0.197 -0.144 -0.118 -0.090 -0.038 1.022 120 re[113] -0.345 0.037 -0.416 -0.369 -0.345 -0.321 -0.267 1.019 120 re[114] -0.017 0.043 -0.107 -0.044 -0.015 0.010 0.071 1.024 110 re[115] -0.395 0.052 -0.490 -0.428 -0.395 -0.359 -0.298 1.034 68 re[116] -0.062 0.040 -0.139 -0.090 -0.062 -0.034 0.016 1.020 120 re[117] 0.329 0.040 0.258 0.301 0.328 0.355 0.406 1.018 110 re[118] 0.247 0.043 0.166 0.219 0.247 0.273 0.337 1.019 130 re[119] -0.224 0.035 -0.293 -0.249 -0.224 -0.200 -0.156 1.008 250 re[120] 0.122 0.036 0.047 0.099 0.123 0.145 0.191 1.008 250 re[121] 0.013 0.039 -0.060 -0.015 0.011 0.038 0.090 1.014 220 re[122] 0.211 0.036 0.141 0.188 0.211 0.236 0.281 1.011 260 re[123] 0.226 0.040 0.144 0.200 0.228 0.252 0.305 1.020 110 re[124] 0.022 0.040 -0.057 -0.005 0.023 0.048 0.102 1.023 110 re[125] -0.184 0.046 -0.277 -0.214 -0.184 -0.153 -0.097 1.026 89 re[126] -0.123 0.035 -0.189 -0.147 -0.123 -0.099 -0.054 1.008 250 re[127] -0.006 0.059 -0.117 -0.048 -0.005 0.036 0.108 1.039 72 re[128] -0.003 0.053 -0.106 -0.040 -0.001 0.035 0.098 1.041 75 re[129] 0.626 0.043 0.545 0.598 0.625 0.654 0.715 1.026 85 re[130] -0.076 0.041 -0.157 -0.102 -0.077 -0.050 0.001 1.029 77 re[131] 0.154 0.059 0.046 0.113 0.153 0.193 0.274 1.040 63 re[132] 0.049 0.047 -0.035 0.018 0.047 0.078 0.149 1.031 72 re[133] -0.039 0.032 -0.100 -0.061 -0.041 -0.018 0.026 1.002 1200 re[134] -0.275 0.033 -0.336 -0.297 -0.276 -0.254 -0.208 1.003 1100 re[135] -0.051 0.034 -0.116 -0.073 -0.052 -0.029 0.017 1.005 1200 re[136] -0.401 0.034 -0.469 -0.424 -0.402 -0.379 -0.330 1.002 1200 re[137] 0.187 0.034 0.121 0.165 0.187 0.209 0.254 1.006 640 re[138] -0.220 0.036 -0.288 -0.244 -0.221 -0.196 -0.148 1.008 380 re[139] -0.063 0.063 -0.193 -0.105 -0.060 -0.021 0.056 1.044 52 re[140] 0.154 0.033 0.097 0.130 0.152 0.177 0.222 1.001 1200 re[141] 0.467 0.032 0.407 0.446 0.467 0.487 0.534 1.002 1100 re[142] 0.215 0.034 0.149 0.193 0.215 0.238 0.283 1.010 250 deviance 60726.192 96.095 60550.000 60660.000 60730.000 60790.000 60930.000 1.001 1200 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 4522.6 and DIC = 65248.8 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).