Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/kohyamajr2008/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 4000 iterations (first 2000 discarded), n.thin = 10 n.sims = 600 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff beta[1] 5.760 1.530 2.596 4.772 5.838 6.675 8.852 1.009 250 beta[2] -2.783 0.645 -4.042 -3.200 -2.810 -2.319 -1.633 0.999 600 beta[3] -2.406 0.950 -4.245 -3.039 -2.413 -1.675 -0.528 1.002 600 tau[1] 0.052 0.007 0.040 0.047 0.052 0.056 0.068 1.018 140 tau[2] 5.337 7.816 0.246 0.876 2.123 6.676 27.106 1.362 9 tau[3] 0.079 0.050 0.013 0.042 0.068 0.104 0.214 1.000 600 random.i[1] -0.242 0.854 -2.293 -0.564 -0.139 0.236 1.216 1.065 72 random.i[2] -0.060 0.835 -1.903 -0.439 -0.069 0.369 1.832 1.051 160 random.i[3] 0.020 0.831 -1.473 -0.387 -0.030 0.373 1.850 1.036 510 random.i[4] -0.312 0.910 -2.671 -0.625 -0.198 0.152 1.178 1.076 56 random.i[5] -0.306 0.876 -2.738 -0.645 -0.166 0.170 1.125 1.069 83 random.i[6] 0.230 0.842 -1.214 -0.237 0.108 0.575 2.196 1.057 110 random.i[7] 0.122 0.858 -1.560 -0.345 0.076 0.529 2.122 1.027 600 random.i[8] -0.114 0.806 -1.710 -0.509 -0.081 0.286 1.638 1.026 600 random.i[9] 0.209 0.915 -1.520 -0.258 0.076 0.550 2.556 1.059 85 random.i[10] 0.184 0.868 -1.444 -0.238 0.096 0.517 2.340 1.047 330 random.i[11] -0.274 0.902 -2.642 -0.585 -0.111 0.215 1.155 1.052 110 random.i[12] 0.149 0.797 -1.535 -0.275 0.102 0.508 1.897 1.060 190 random.i[13] 0.319 0.908 -1.345 -0.199 0.176 0.669 2.533 1.090 55 random.i[14] 0.481 1.080 -1.049 -0.139 0.237 0.852 3.207 1.050 48 random.i[15] 0.396 1.025 -1.223 -0.243 0.188 0.836 3.019 1.062 61 random.i[16] -0.496 1.033 -3.106 -0.841 -0.210 0.107 1.055 1.053 56 random.i[17] 0.052 1.037 -1.990 -0.384 0.021 0.465 2.268 1.047 560 random.i[18] -0.043 0.874 -1.998 -0.419 -0.025 0.324 1.656 1.050 600 random.i[19] 0.430 0.996 -1.151 -0.145 0.244 0.750 3.010 1.085 48 random.i[20] -0.099 0.885 -2.167 -0.472 -0.058 0.311 1.778 1.053 600 random.i[21] -0.149 0.835 -2.150 -0.486 -0.083 0.271 1.393 1.073 94 random.i[22] -0.047 0.890 -1.861 -0.446 -0.020 0.360 1.808 1.053 600 random.i[23] 0.150 0.820 -1.427 -0.280 0.065 0.474 2.146 1.038 300 random.i[24] 0.113 0.788 -1.390 -0.274 0.057 0.476 1.783 1.049 330 random.i[25] -0.146 0.963 -2.571 -0.475 -0.053 0.292 1.467 1.070 110 random.i[26] 0.126 0.895 -1.780 -0.308 0.059 0.497 2.208 1.043 360 random.i[27] 0.135 0.801 -1.442 -0.279 0.076 0.487 1.904 1.039 330 random.i[28] 0.051 0.841 -1.787 -0.347 0.011 0.439 2.049 1.049 600 random.i[29] -0.043 0.853 -1.841 -0.442 -0.017 0.374 1.627 1.046 600 random.i[30] -0.168 0.884 -2.191 -0.540 -0.092 0.261 1.506 1.044 260 random.i[31] 0.029 0.867 -1.809 -0.386 0.032 0.405 1.923 1.048 600 random.i[32] -0.018 0.819 -1.812 -0.413 -0.030 0.363 1.846 1.025 600 random.i[33] -0.273 0.851 -2.420 -0.654 -0.185 0.189 1.250 1.059 78 random.i[34] -0.438 0.981 -2.693 -0.838 -0.232 0.117 1.020 1.087 52 random.i[35] 0.014 0.875 -1.804 -0.404 -0.009 0.416 2.261 1.065 600 random.i[36] 0.193 0.908 -1.633 -0.278 0.101 0.599 2.206 1.043 400 random.i[37] -0.201 0.884 -2.286 -0.592 -0.108 0.235 1.594 1.048 150 random.i[38] -0.178 0.942 -2.536 -0.530 -0.058 0.301 1.471 1.037 600 random.i[39] 0.302 0.952 -1.503 -0.196 0.190 0.756 2.703 1.061 86 random.i[40] -0.611 1.073 -3.306 -1.023 -0.293 0.014 0.753 1.076 45 random.i[41] -0.208 0.823 -2.093 -0.575 -0.081 0.240 1.199 1.055 160 random.i[42] 0.153 0.860 -1.359 -0.299 0.053 0.464 2.219 1.054 100 random.i[43] -0.308 0.910 -2.587 -0.676 -0.170 0.197 1.332 1.042 170 random.i[44] -0.200 0.844 -2.248 -0.498 -0.104 0.208 1.456 1.050 600 random.i[45] 0.120 0.847 -1.770 -0.284 0.062 0.474 2.083 1.030 600 random.i[46] -0.171 0.835 -2.144 -0.529 -0.077 0.260 1.416 1.041 100 random.i[47] -0.157 0.883 -1.960 -0.573 -0.099 0.270 1.495 1.029 170 random.i[48] -0.206 0.867 -2.090 -0.549 -0.098 0.276 1.438 1.056 94 random.i[49] 0.262 0.905 -1.379 -0.231 0.143 0.633 2.683 1.073 93 random.i[50] 0.118 0.853 -1.557 -0.343 0.025 0.486 2.099 1.039 580 random.i[51] -0.071 0.887 -2.059 -0.431 -0.036 0.365 1.846 1.049 600 random.i[52] 0.169 0.885 -1.629 -0.287 0.128 0.556 2.167 1.043 240 random.i[53] 0.069 0.756 -1.434 -0.330 0.015 0.462 1.907 1.040 600 random.i[54] 0.051 0.907 -1.767 -0.376 0.029 0.392 2.128 1.061 600 random.i[55] -0.091 0.883 -2.257 -0.445 0.000 0.322 1.377 1.032 600 random.i[56] 0.447 1.001 -0.988 -0.163 0.227 0.873 2.745 1.095 37 random.i[57] 0.279 0.931 -1.360 -0.200 0.133 0.643 2.421 1.034 180 random.i[58] 0.028 0.861 -1.730 -0.361 0.039 0.436 1.875 1.048 600 random.i[59] 0.006 0.853 -1.742 -0.382 -0.004 0.375 1.959 1.054 600 random.i[60] -0.055 0.818 -1.751 -0.463 -0.023 0.330 1.542 1.035 600 random.i[61] 0.098 0.869 -1.588 -0.324 0.063 0.489 1.918 1.056 96 random.i[62] 0.370 0.890 -1.075 -0.166 0.177 0.758 2.443 1.067 62 random.i[63] 0.161 0.918 -1.426 -0.298 0.053 0.510 2.522 1.066 240 random.i[64] 0.017 0.871 -1.589 -0.390 0.038 0.399 1.938 1.067 600 random.i[65] -0.001 0.794 -1.617 -0.437 -0.001 0.381 1.670 1.025 510 random.i[66] 0.202 0.891 -1.250 -0.263 0.071 0.636 2.154 1.045 170 random.i[67] -0.238 0.875 -2.554 -0.580 -0.126 0.222 1.265 1.025 200 random.i[68] -0.153 0.910 -2.270 -0.539 -0.056 0.290 1.654 1.044 110 random.i[69] 0.043 0.879 -1.788 -0.431 -0.019 0.444 2.057 1.024 600 random.i[70] 0.357 0.903 -1.083 -0.153 0.173 0.692 2.755 1.036 97 random.i[71] -0.026 0.828 -1.906 -0.403 -0.034 0.374 1.942 1.042 570 random.i[72] 0.285 0.846 -1.215 -0.166 0.172 0.603 2.385 1.049 90 random.i[73] 0.252 0.863 -1.298 -0.177 0.121 0.559 2.350 1.065 86 random.i[74] 0.122 0.837 -1.538 -0.295 0.046 0.551 2.197 1.025 230 random.i[75] 0.044 0.819 -1.587 -0.342 0.033 0.371 1.932 1.059 600 random.i[76] -0.262 0.907 -2.442 -0.616 -0.135 0.191 1.334 1.107 54 random.i[77] 0.031 0.860 -1.679 -0.360 0.023 0.406 1.910 1.040 360 random.i[78] -0.132 0.928 -2.212 -0.537 -0.061 0.293 1.695 1.052 120 random.i[79] -0.154 0.977 -2.259 -0.556 -0.063 0.322 1.656 1.029 290 random.i[80] -0.171 0.962 -2.534 -0.563 -0.075 0.289 1.470 1.034 400 random.i[81] -0.150 0.876 -2.171 -0.558 -0.062 0.305 1.541 1.055 120 random.i[82] -0.173 0.911 -2.018 -0.513 -0.085 0.292 1.469 1.025 190 random.i[83] -0.289 0.949 -2.591 -0.604 -0.170 0.185 1.566 1.032 120 random.i[84] 0.080 0.926 -1.807 -0.343 0.013 0.424 2.349 1.087 150 random.i[85] 0.139 0.861 -1.528 -0.290 0.078 0.491 2.134 1.042 220 random.i[86] 0.087 0.927 -1.970 -0.295 0.007 0.399 2.212 1.058 600 random.i[87] 0.130 1.012 -1.846 -0.280 0.045 0.478 2.489 1.050 280 random.i[88] 0.069 0.883 -1.757 -0.348 -0.017 0.426 1.938 1.062 600 random.i[89] 0.089 0.958 -1.778 -0.367 0.044 0.487 2.352 1.046 430 random.i[90] -0.331 0.935 -2.481 -0.632 -0.173 0.209 1.050 1.101 39 random.i[91] 0.145 0.921 -1.812 -0.262 0.082 0.516 2.230 1.047 210 random.i[92] 0.157 0.828 -1.350 -0.278 0.070 0.505 2.085 1.023 600 random.i[93] 0.120 0.898 -1.635 -0.328 0.070 0.505 2.356 1.044 290 random.i[94] 0.146 0.944 -1.516 -0.268 0.067 0.482 2.317 1.074 190 random.i[95] -0.280 0.937 -2.596 -0.632 -0.149 0.200 1.340 1.069 110 random.i[96] -0.229 0.891 -2.416 -0.529 -0.109 0.239 1.403 1.034 120 random.i[97] 0.071 0.874 -1.632 -0.362 0.034 0.492 1.980 1.073 120 random.i[98] 0.084 0.944 -1.744 -0.306 0.042 0.427 2.329 1.041 92 random.i[99] 0.147 0.949 -1.940 -0.275 0.067 0.528 2.239 1.041 430 random.i[100] 0.099 0.887 -1.622 -0.317 0.058 0.498 2.128 1.058 600 random.i[101] -0.267 0.923 -2.322 -0.602 -0.133 0.223 1.356 1.074 110 random.i[102] 0.036 0.877 -1.886 -0.371 0.033 0.449 1.973 1.053 600 random.i[103] 0.012 0.886 -1.892 -0.409 0.038 0.423 1.907 1.039 600 random.i[104] -0.242 0.947 -2.219 -0.650 -0.134 0.277 1.491 1.037 190 random.i[105] 0.100 0.954 -1.708 -0.335 0.050 0.505 2.214 1.025 600 random.i[106] -0.296 0.949 -2.728 -0.659 -0.154 0.226 1.169 1.044 77 random.i[107] 0.092 0.944 -1.687 -0.345 -0.007 0.489 2.262 1.059 160 random.i[108] 0.069 0.852 -1.646 -0.326 0.034 0.460 2.053 1.056 330 random.i[109] 0.077 0.962 -1.991 -0.317 0.046 0.454 2.197 1.046 600 random.i[110] -0.019 0.944 -2.078 -0.404 -0.028 0.392 1.932 1.040 230 random.i[111] -0.060 0.894 -1.800 -0.453 -0.010 0.354 1.777 1.038 600 random.i[112] -0.050 0.865 -1.982 -0.400 -0.034 0.389 1.611 1.063 600 random.i[113] 0.243 0.881 -1.369 -0.199 0.128 0.608 2.376 1.053 91 random.i[114] -0.427 0.974 -3.012 -0.827 -0.230 0.137 1.137 1.082 47 random.i[115] -0.526 1.088 -3.353 -0.943 -0.241 0.119 1.064 1.057 61 random.i[116] -0.501 1.050 -3.101 -0.891 -0.255 0.114 0.972 1.091 41 random.i[117] -0.385 0.956 -2.960 -0.781 -0.188 0.131 1.192 1.053 50 random.i[118] 0.149 0.893 -1.488 -0.291 0.077 0.489 2.341 1.033 600 random.i[119] 0.200 0.959 -1.365 -0.287 0.101 0.599 2.431 1.066 92 random.i[120] 0.192 0.871 -1.633 -0.264 0.112 0.602 2.133 1.036 190 random.i[121] 0.217 0.951 -1.532 -0.261 0.097 0.581 2.515 1.076 140 random.i[122] 0.249 1.002 -1.464 -0.264 0.090 0.622 2.726 1.035 270 random.i[123] 0.209 0.874 -1.510 -0.230 0.109 0.592 2.292 1.060 74 random.i[124] -0.107 0.803 -1.941 -0.441 -0.066 0.286 1.469 1.080 300 random.i[125] 0.231 0.946 -1.378 -0.229 0.115 0.516 2.569 1.017 360 random.i[126] 0.035 0.875 -1.654 -0.351 0.035 0.426 1.917 1.028 450 random.i[127] -0.162 0.890 -2.378 -0.517 -0.083 0.314 1.616 1.052 180 random.i[128] 0.029 0.822 -1.703 -0.343 0.015 0.433 1.736 1.037 600 random.i[129] 0.356 0.951 -1.158 -0.176 0.179 0.717 2.624 1.029 110 random.i[130] 0.348 0.980 -1.215 -0.203 0.165 0.696 2.785 1.061 56 random.i[131] 0.003 0.802 -1.683 -0.371 0.004 0.364 1.729 1.031 600 random.i[132] 0.203 0.923 -1.419 -0.233 0.115 0.531 2.696 1.049 140 random.i[133] -0.177 0.870 -2.303 -0.547 -0.119 0.263 1.524 1.076 170 random.i[134] -0.317 0.833 -2.263 -0.685 -0.176 0.171 1.141 1.061 64 random.i[135] -0.586 1.102 -3.737 -0.967 -0.293 0.080 0.851 1.064 54 random.i[136] 0.463 1.024 -0.976 -0.140 0.251 0.782 3.207 1.055 84 random.i[137] 0.296 0.962 -1.488 -0.169 0.154 0.646 2.625 1.050 88 random.i[138] 0.392 0.938 -1.151 -0.123 0.162 0.756 2.829 1.064 55 random.i[139] -0.235 0.816 -2.014 -0.618 -0.135 0.189 1.317 1.070 52 random.i[140] 0.112 0.883 -1.445 -0.304 0.028 0.443 2.164 1.023 600 random.i[141] 0.303 0.880 -1.058 -0.209 0.154 0.696 2.517 1.061 110 random.i[142] -0.195 0.868 -2.095 -0.516 -0.085 0.249 1.246 1.045 280 random.i[143] 0.413 1.038 -1.063 -0.186 0.198 0.730 3.135 1.062 63 random.i[144] -0.527 1.032 -3.178 -0.950 -0.250 0.081 1.053 1.089 45 random.i[145] 0.041 0.896 -1.710 -0.382 0.041 0.457 1.955 1.051 420 random.i[146] -0.235 0.863 -2.405 -0.617 -0.135 0.262 1.120 1.057 120 random.i[147] -0.115 0.881 -1.857 -0.512 -0.046 0.322 1.466 1.024 190 random.i[148] -0.078 0.801 -1.924 -0.438 -0.001 0.337 1.570 1.046 89 random.i[149] 0.179 0.880 -1.450 -0.250 0.146 0.572 1.987 1.029 600 random.i[150] -0.296 0.902 -2.524 -0.644 -0.160 0.193 1.290 1.066 65 random.i[151] -0.262 0.913 -2.597 -0.605 -0.170 0.188 1.420 1.035 360 random.i[152] -0.061 0.813 -1.867 -0.434 -0.055 0.306 1.696 1.053 210 random.i[153] 0.272 0.866 -1.365 -0.217 0.159 0.713 2.332 1.069 83 random.i[154] 0.182 0.889 -1.540 -0.331 0.105 0.575 2.244 1.051 160 random.i[155] -0.050 0.848 -2.152 -0.412 -0.022 0.332 1.741 1.051 170 random.i[156] -0.189 0.919 -2.411 -0.613 -0.081 0.311 1.621 1.064 110 random.i[157] -0.032 0.887 -2.013 -0.389 -0.008 0.390 1.746 1.024 600 random.i[158] -0.350 0.898 -2.626 -0.688 -0.193 0.140 1.164 1.078 52 random.i[159] -0.003 0.957 -1.885 -0.432 -0.033 0.412 1.987 1.047 600 random.i[160] -0.243 0.913 -2.412 -0.580 -0.107 0.238 1.381 1.063 150 random.i[161] 0.147 0.811 -1.528 -0.261 0.075 0.502 1.937 1.059 200 random.i[162] 0.319 0.951 -1.264 -0.232 0.147 0.671 2.827 1.054 130 random.i[163] 0.230 0.891 -1.445 -0.232 0.173 0.647 2.395 1.037 120 random.i[164] 0.084 0.882 -1.915 -0.262 0.069 0.514 2.145 1.050 430 random.i[165] -0.404 1.011 -3.060 -0.716 -0.223 0.135 1.200 1.039 110 random.i[166] 0.224 0.897 -1.387 -0.261 0.102 0.608 2.545 1.031 280 random.i[167] 0.131 0.934 -1.693 -0.320 0.065 0.504 2.230 1.061 110 random.i[168] -0.276 0.886 -2.599 -0.679 -0.154 0.181 1.362 1.080 62 random.i[169] 0.113 0.878 -1.522 -0.335 0.086 0.530 1.923 1.035 240 random.i[170] 0.081 0.900 -1.774 -0.366 0.025 0.487 1.957 1.041 600 random.i[171] -0.280 0.902 -2.523 -0.662 -0.149 0.200 1.232 1.091 94 random.i[172] 0.093 0.909 -1.746 -0.350 0.081 0.489 1.964 1.019 600 random.i[173] 0.198 0.940 -1.538 -0.239 0.110 0.509 2.586 1.064 140 random.i[174] 0.053 0.868 -1.670 -0.309 0.024 0.418 2.118 1.057 600 random.i[175] 0.123 0.946 -1.588 -0.352 0.066 0.463 2.228 1.058 220 random.i[176] 0.193 0.873 -1.484 -0.285 0.107 0.595 2.255 1.044 210 random.i[177] 0.012 0.863 -1.743 -0.406 0.019 0.443 1.823 1.050 540 random.i[178] 0.146 0.890 -1.343 -0.302 0.035 0.457 2.380 1.032 260 random.i[179] 0.099 0.929 -1.727 -0.324 0.063 0.489 2.095 1.024 600 random.i[180] 0.091 0.930 -1.800 -0.344 0.045 0.468 2.037 1.031 600 random.pop[1] 3.859 2.005 -0.010 2.487 3.725 5.218 7.904 1.004 600 random.pop[2] -2.017 1.614 -5.209 -3.073 -2.013 -0.979 1.039 1.005 330 random.pop[3] 0.580 1.606 -2.599 -0.434 0.554 1.678 3.715 1.006 510 random.pop[4] -3.650 1.555 -6.679 -4.608 -3.685 -2.686 -0.492 1.013 160 random.pop[5] -3.258 1.579 -6.422 -4.279 -3.308 -2.255 -0.187 1.012 170 random.pop[6] 4.801 1.681 1.503 3.732 4.747 5.804 8.155 1.001 600 deviance 320.486 34.613 254.635 295.350 320.450 344.325 385.322 1.008 280 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 528.5 and DIC = 849.0 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).