Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/obihiro_flower/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 10000 iterations (first 4000 discarded), n.thin = 30 n.sims = 600 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff pbase[1] -2.742 0.759 -4.290 -3.227 -2.705 -2.177 -1.397 1.027 85 pbase[2] 0.792 0.246 0.327 0.638 0.787 0.956 1.270 1.033 260 pbase[3] -0.157 0.339 -0.844 -0.384 -0.160 0.049 0.534 1.000 600 pbase[4] 1.593 0.408 0.759 1.326 1.594 1.859 2.326 1.011 600 pbase[5] 1.672 0.220 1.284 1.520 1.663 1.800 2.129 1.017 140 pbase[6] 5.144 0.768 3.796 4.634 5.100 5.649 6.727 1.046 120 pspc[1,1] 4.824 1.693 1.795 3.626 4.757 5.992 8.100 1.002 600 pspc[1,2] 1.114 1.262 -2.019 0.390 1.243 1.955 3.253 1.011 170 pspc[1,3] -0.886 0.993 -2.939 -1.524 -0.839 -0.192 1.066 1.013 140 pspc[1,4] -1.260 1.490 -4.498 -2.096 -1.143 -0.099 1.203 1.000 600 pspc[1,5] -2.388 0.842 -4.069 -2.932 -2.334 -1.806 -0.813 1.011 170 pspc[1,6] 1.126 1.430 -2.191 0.251 1.289 2.152 3.473 1.005 510 pspc[1,7] 2.522 0.762 1.092 2.045 2.523 3.017 3.950 1.013 380 pspc[1,8] -1.543 0.768 -3.143 -2.016 -1.489 -1.033 -0.093 1.018 190 pspc[1,9] 1.099 0.797 -0.346 0.548 1.093 1.629 2.627 1.021 100 pspc[1,10] -0.626 0.906 -2.365 -1.232 -0.583 -0.029 1.068 1.021 110 pspc[1,11] -2.483 0.980 -4.533 -3.000 -2.383 -1.848 -0.871 1.028 160 pspc[1,12] 3.759 0.686 2.474 3.271 3.782 4.229 5.098 1.009 240 pspc[1,13] 4.025 0.856 2.320 3.450 3.993 4.616 5.681 1.004 480 pspc[1,14] -1.139 1.359 -3.954 -1.992 -1.002 -0.174 1.208 0.999 600 pspc[1,15] -0.322 0.731 -1.835 -0.776 -0.325 0.159 1.119 1.013 160 pspc[1,16] 2.748 0.756 1.359 2.211 2.725 3.235 4.243 1.007 230 pspc[1,17] -0.674 1.496 -3.844 -1.580 -0.619 0.245 2.266 1.008 600 pspc[1,18] -0.935 1.233 -3.599 -1.721 -0.918 -0.090 1.278 1.002 570 pspc[1,19] -1.521 0.677 -2.963 -1.944 -1.515 -1.030 -0.379 1.030 77 pspc[1,20] -2.364 1.002 -4.602 -2.999 -2.346 -1.624 -0.616 1.005 540 pspc[1,21] -2.933 1.210 -6.090 -3.527 -2.795 -2.094 -1.065 1.014 140 pspc[1,22] 1.091 1.071 -1.276 0.445 1.184 1.779 2.955 1.004 370 pspc[1,23] -2.363 0.797 -4.043 -2.870 -2.365 -1.785 -0.946 1.011 220 pspc[2,1] 0.017 0.353 -0.738 -0.146 0.008 0.180 0.766 1.001 600 pspc[2,2] -0.009 0.294 -0.652 -0.151 -0.013 0.132 0.673 1.004 380 pspc[2,3] -0.006 0.309 -0.583 -0.157 -0.015 0.149 0.687 1.006 600 pspc[2,4] 0.015 0.331 -0.674 -0.150 -0.017 0.163 0.755 1.005 600 pspc[2,5] -0.026 0.308 -0.735 -0.158 -0.010 0.117 0.572 1.000 600 pspc[2,6] 0.039 0.329 -0.682 -0.094 0.027 0.178 0.753 1.011 350 pspc[2,7] 0.011 0.249 -0.462 -0.127 0.005 0.135 0.589 1.003 600 pspc[2,8] 0.028 0.322 -0.585 -0.136 -0.002 0.191 0.746 1.009 510 pspc[2,9] 0.239 0.297 -0.201 0.042 0.179 0.371 0.996 1.004 410 pspc[2,10] -0.021 0.299 -0.643 -0.180 -0.022 0.132 0.613 1.011 180 pspc[2,11] -0.049 0.278 -0.639 -0.189 -0.034 0.095 0.529 1.000 600 pspc[2,12] 0.112 0.288 -0.385 -0.059 0.070 0.254 0.719 1.005 600 pspc[2,13] 0.042 0.267 -0.441 -0.100 0.031 0.169 0.600 1.000 600 pspc[2,14] 0.019 0.318 -0.587 -0.129 0.014 0.171 0.732 1.013 260 pspc[2,15] -0.004 0.306 -0.674 -0.147 -0.003 0.139 0.663 1.011 190 pspc[2,16] -0.107 0.288 -0.771 -0.243 -0.069 0.055 0.422 1.003 590 pspc[2,17] -0.024 0.325 -0.675 -0.181 -0.029 0.118 0.665 1.001 600 pspc[2,18] -0.115 0.372 -0.991 -0.242 -0.059 0.084 0.438 1.000 600 pspc[2,19] -0.142 0.307 -0.820 -0.293 -0.086 0.037 0.363 0.999 600 pspc[2,20] 0.008 0.302 -0.612 -0.138 -0.002 0.144 0.681 1.002 600 pspc[2,21] 0.023 0.276 -0.510 -0.134 0.009 0.174 0.588 1.011 380 pspc[2,22] -0.004 0.302 -0.613 -0.152 0.000 0.142 0.623 1.021 200 pspc[2,23] -0.044 0.310 -0.781 -0.196 -0.027 0.122 0.562 1.006 600 pspc[3,1] 0.024 0.368 -0.667 -0.152 0.001 0.164 0.912 1.007 600 pspc[3,2] 0.043 0.394 -0.727 -0.142 0.011 0.209 0.867 1.008 210 pspc[3,3] 0.087 0.372 -0.566 -0.103 0.033 0.217 1.144 1.009 600 pspc[3,4] 0.002 0.348 -0.797 -0.163 -0.003 0.161 0.794 1.014 130 pspc[3,5] 0.049 0.332 -0.559 -0.124 0.022 0.193 0.805 1.002 600 pspc[3,6] 0.024 0.385 -0.712 -0.171 0.002 0.206 0.859 1.007 600 pspc[3,7] -0.094 0.309 -0.796 -0.246 -0.044 0.089 0.400 1.003 600 pspc[3,8] 0.092 0.337 -0.537 -0.092 0.046 0.250 0.897 1.002 600 pspc[3,9] 0.108 0.310 -0.381 -0.070 0.061 0.240 0.846 1.001 600 pspc[3,10] 0.055 0.363 -0.588 -0.123 0.026 0.204 0.918 1.008 600 pspc[3,11] -0.014 0.335 -0.816 -0.162 0.006 0.162 0.601 1.002 560 pspc[3,12] 0.218 0.368 -0.263 -0.011 0.127 0.357 1.197 1.000 600 pspc[3,13] -0.106 0.348 -0.933 -0.276 -0.050 0.099 0.519 1.014 140 pspc[3,14] -0.028 0.403 -0.849 -0.199 -0.023 0.127 0.855 1.011 600 pspc[3,15] -0.129 0.352 -0.873 -0.282 -0.082 0.070 0.467 1.001 600 pspc[3,16] 0.012 0.318 -0.649 -0.141 0.001 0.146 0.755 1.014 600 pspc[3,17] -0.030 0.417 -0.878 -0.187 -0.008 0.143 0.820 1.012 600 pspc[3,18] -0.189 0.440 -1.515 -0.288 -0.087 0.046 0.407 1.004 600 pspc[3,19] -0.115 0.305 -0.854 -0.284 -0.069 0.073 0.389 1.009 590 pspc[3,20] 0.031 0.363 -0.661 -0.126 0.015 0.180 0.825 1.019 140 pspc[3,21] -0.035 0.353 -0.757 -0.188 -0.019 0.117 0.631 1.013 600 pspc[3,22] 0.033 0.367 -0.757 -0.141 0.009 0.185 0.872 1.008 600 pspc[3,23] 0.007 0.328 -0.706 -0.163 0.010 0.164 0.722 1.014 170 pspc[4,1] -0.005 0.570 -1.196 -0.173 0.006 0.228 0.986 1.029 600 pspc[4,2] -0.001 0.573 -1.210 -0.183 0.006 0.210 1.147 1.006 450 pspc[4,3] 0.152 0.507 -0.623 -0.093 0.050 0.297 1.541 0.999 600 pspc[4,4] 0.030 0.542 -1.071 -0.181 0.004 0.215 1.296 1.008 600 pspc[4,5] 0.133 0.450 -0.557 -0.109 0.053 0.281 1.303 1.022 600 pspc[4,6] 0.014 0.539 -1.074 -0.206 0.010 0.236 1.211 1.002 600 pspc[4,7] 0.054 0.515 -0.843 -0.168 0.021 0.207 1.299 1.005 600 pspc[4,8] 0.204 0.494 -0.510 -0.075 0.090 0.357 1.502 1.022 280 pspc[4,9] -0.080 0.395 -0.956 -0.267 -0.029 0.131 0.663 1.016 600 pspc[4,10] 0.226 0.517 -0.427 -0.057 0.099 0.364 1.520 1.014 600 pspc[4,11] 0.035 0.489 -1.033 -0.162 0.019 0.218 1.010 1.038 600 pspc[4,12] 0.044 0.609 -1.416 -0.146 0.034 0.284 1.378 1.012 380 pspc[4,13] 0.007 0.576 -1.357 -0.205 -0.021 0.194 1.340 1.023 220 pspc[4,14] 0.000 0.570 -1.351 -0.174 -0.007 0.219 1.228 1.035 100 pspc[4,15] -0.190 0.499 -1.533 -0.377 -0.079 0.082 0.601 1.012 350 pspc[4,16] -0.027 0.465 -1.150 -0.180 -0.022 0.181 0.936 1.012 600 pspc[4,17] 0.017 0.564 -0.976 -0.206 -0.004 0.201 1.377 1.021 580 pspc[4,18] -0.363 0.695 -2.348 -0.511 -0.127 0.028 0.431 1.015 150 pspc[4,19] -0.070 0.348 -0.772 -0.229 -0.046 0.091 0.577 1.012 540 pspc[4,20] 0.010 0.422 -0.806 -0.180 0.011 0.177 0.954 1.006 600 pspc[4,21] 0.018 0.496 -0.986 -0.166 0.022 0.213 1.028 1.006 430 pspc[4,22] 0.032 0.552 -1.011 -0.213 0.021 0.241 1.221 1.010 190 pspc[4,23] 0.045 0.463 -0.937 -0.159 0.027 0.242 1.107 1.029 600 pspc[5,1] -1.120 0.656 -2.538 -1.538 -1.092 -0.655 0.093 1.009 200 pspc[5,2] 0.568 0.523 -0.366 0.225 0.545 0.896 1.612 1.007 600 pspc[5,3] 0.259 0.562 -0.688 -0.135 0.220 0.632 1.419 1.002 600 pspc[5,4] 0.258 0.596 -0.734 -0.107 0.191 0.552 1.626 1.004 600 pspc[5,5] 0.258 0.442 -0.526 -0.032 0.220 0.515 1.234 0.999 600 pspc[5,6] 0.412 0.584 -0.643 0.015 0.397 0.754 1.659 1.006 330 pspc[5,7] -0.714 0.353 -1.445 -0.949 -0.695 -0.475 -0.058 1.007 340 pspc[5,8] -0.121 0.372 -0.865 -0.364 -0.122 0.109 0.612 1.006 260 pspc[5,9] -0.566 0.407 -1.392 -0.836 -0.550 -0.278 0.216 1.014 130 pspc[5,10] 0.645 0.627 -0.376 0.215 0.605 1.019 2.101 1.000 600 pspc[5,11] -0.694 0.487 -1.602 -1.007 -0.718 -0.377 0.271 1.007 600 pspc[5,12] 0.679 0.427 -0.086 0.386 0.642 0.937 1.576 1.003 600 pspc[5,13] -0.631 0.359 -1.389 -0.855 -0.606 -0.396 0.047 1.003 400 pspc[5,14] 0.132 0.568 -0.806 -0.273 0.067 0.460 1.356 1.008 230 pspc[5,15] -0.036 0.402 -0.879 -0.287 -0.026 0.229 0.744 1.002 560 pspc[5,16] -0.251 0.365 -0.958 -0.504 -0.248 0.013 0.439 1.000 600 pspc[5,17] 0.254 0.626 -0.958 -0.141 0.197 0.652 1.566 1.001 600 pspc[5,18] 0.541 0.479 -0.311 0.218 0.491 0.848 1.500 0.999 600 pspc[5,19] -0.315 0.368 -1.058 -0.573 -0.302 -0.045 0.368 1.002 560 pspc[5,20] -0.102 0.589 -1.172 -0.482 -0.109 0.244 1.165 1.003 440 pspc[5,21] 0.040 0.432 -0.817 -0.233 0.034 0.326 0.893 1.009 220 pspc[5,22] 0.542 0.650 -0.572 0.073 0.504 0.906 1.954 1.009 200 pspc[5,23] -0.135 0.470 -0.990 -0.433 -0.154 0.164 0.824 1.002 580 pspc[6,1] -2.320 1.333 -4.746 -3.224 -2.366 -1.417 0.303 1.014 240 pspc[6,2] 1.651 1.499 -0.906 0.562 1.522 2.603 4.847 1.009 250 pspc[6,3] 1.240 1.560 -1.358 0.189 1.090 2.047 5.021 1.017 250 pspc[6,4] 1.257 1.724 -1.562 0.038 1.054 2.280 5.002 1.007 250 pspc[6,5] 1.763 1.210 -0.458 0.920 1.735 2.505 4.379 1.009 270 pspc[6,6] 1.827 2.082 -1.414 0.331 1.554 2.905 6.915 1.015 230 pspc[6,7] -1.892 0.888 -3.664 -2.451 -1.857 -1.335 -0.327 1.028 94 pspc[6,8] -3.857 0.865 -5.589 -4.396 -3.856 -3.275 -2.232 1.027 120 pspc[6,9] -0.581 0.880 -2.501 -1.137 -0.555 -0.029 1.155 1.023 150 pspc[6,10] 0.981 1.458 -1.676 0.101 0.842 1.733 4.194 1.023 130 pspc[6,11] -0.332 1.238 -2.579 -1.097 -0.418 0.289 2.469 1.032 170 pspc[6,12] -9.753 1.138 -12.081 -10.450 -9.717 -9.003 -7.647 1.009 310 pspc[6,13] -2.314 0.902 -4.078 -2.930 -2.315 -1.745 -0.603 1.019 220 pspc[6,14] 1.878 1.589 -0.927 0.818 1.787 2.786 5.264 1.002 600 pspc[6,15] -0.231 0.990 -2.113 -0.911 -0.259 0.402 1.805 1.019 120 pspc[6,16] -0.417 0.924 -2.201 -1.024 -0.391 0.181 1.205 1.019 130 pspc[6,17] 3.606 1.860 0.662 2.246 3.466 4.665 7.741 1.007 330 pspc[6,18] 2.959 1.582 0.230 1.889 2.814 3.961 6.355 0.999 600 pspc[6,19] 0.092 0.831 -1.441 -0.452 0.089 0.581 1.646 1.028 91 pspc[6,20] 0.508 1.175 -1.828 -0.312 0.492 1.224 2.888 1.007 480 pspc[6,21] 2.099 1.419 -0.385 1.161 1.989 2.869 5.637 1.014 170 pspc[6,22] 3.135 2.011 -0.048 1.801 2.852 4.248 7.734 1.006 360 pspc[6,23] 1.111 1.114 -1.014 0.418 1.087 1.797 3.390 1.013 200 re.site[1] 0.306 0.381 -0.202 0.039 0.201 0.507 1.212 1.002 600 re.site[2] -0.180 0.199 -0.614 -0.295 -0.158 -0.051 0.169 1.000 600 re.site[3] -0.017 0.187 -0.367 -0.116 -0.022 0.080 0.379 1.002 600 re.site[4] 0.104 0.224 -0.308 -0.025 0.096 0.223 0.558 1.008 600 re.site[5] -0.111 0.268 -0.713 -0.258 -0.091 0.044 0.397 1.000 600 re.site[6] -0.234 0.320 -1.018 -0.407 -0.163 -0.010 0.238 1.020 150 re.site[7] 0.018 0.302 -0.662 -0.132 0.008 0.167 0.702 1.014 400 re.site[8] -0.051 0.311 -0.758 -0.194 -0.032 0.129 0.572 0.999 600 re.site[9] 0.242 0.365 -0.287 0.001 0.165 0.424 1.216 1.013 410 re.site[10] 0.247 0.409 -0.324 -0.014 0.153 0.412 1.311 1.021 300 re.site[11] -0.424 0.541 -1.877 -0.653 -0.261 -0.079 0.200 1.009 320 re.site[12] 0.075 0.246 -0.382 -0.068 0.054 0.212 0.600 1.002 600 re.site[13] 0.148 0.284 -0.326 -0.015 0.110 0.295 0.776 1.003 600 re.site[14] 0.119 0.352 -0.534 -0.064 0.069 0.264 1.012 1.006 580 re.site[15] -0.129 0.366 -0.986 -0.287 -0.056 0.086 0.453 1.002 510 re.site[16] -0.041 0.313 -0.654 -0.203 -0.019 0.125 0.579 1.010 600 re.site[17] 0.124 0.335 -0.459 -0.060 0.078 0.287 0.900 1.009 190 re.site[18] 0.078 0.333 -0.484 -0.104 0.046 0.225 0.913 1.002 600 re.site[19] -0.201 0.418 -1.339 -0.329 -0.108 0.047 0.350 1.005 600 re.site[20] 0.013 0.355 -0.768 -0.159 0.006 0.166 0.737 1.012 330 re.year[1] -0.532 0.540 -1.633 -0.815 -0.540 -0.225 0.543 1.040 140 re.year[2] 0.610 0.521 -0.409 0.289 0.572 0.897 1.732 1.034 210 re.year[3] -0.588 0.524 -1.698 -0.890 -0.610 -0.304 0.540 1.036 180 re.year[4] 0.828 0.524 -0.182 0.527 0.798 1.114 1.991 1.033 190 tau[1] 96.227 64.127 19.767 54.890 82.885 118.125 253.561 1.053 41 tau[2] 29.047 41.814 1.335 5.125 12.095 34.312 156.440 1.004 340 tau[3] 1.778 1.542 0.149 0.699 1.323 2.392 5.785 1.003 600 tau.pspc[1] 0.175 0.066 0.076 0.127 0.164 0.211 0.317 1.008 210 tau.pspc[2] 33.727 48.118 2.086 7.598 16.490 38.421 170.677 1.011 160 tau.pspc[3] 33.941 55.537 1.201 5.295 14.185 37.488 183.369 1.005 310 tau.pspc[4] 27.866 48.853 0.509 2.995 10.260 30.107 175.284 1.015 150 tau.pspc[5] 3.194 5.070 0.724 1.457 2.174 3.536 10.309 1.008 210 tau.pspc[6] 0.109 0.039 0.046 0.079 0.105 0.133 0.195 1.005 320 deviance 1808.873 55.964 1705.975 1769.000 1809.000 1848.000 1920.025 0.999 600 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = var(deviance)/2) pD = 1571.0 and DIC = 3379.9 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).