Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/obihiro_flower/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 10000 iterations (first 4000 discarded), n.thin = 30 n.sims = 600 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff pbase[1] 2.326 0.823 0.451 1.838 2.343 2.883 3.832 1.038 84 pbase[2] 0.811 0.254 0.305 0.642 0.808 0.979 1.314 1.000 600 pbase[3] -0.137 0.335 -0.761 -0.371 -0.147 0.094 0.510 1.006 420 pbase[4] 1.562 0.399 0.714 1.328 1.579 1.815 2.276 1.011 600 pbase[5] 1.591 0.174 1.237 1.479 1.587 1.695 1.925 1.031 71 pbase[6] -5.263 0.754 -6.782 -5.762 -5.250 -4.756 -3.778 1.020 96 pspc[1,1] 3.307 1.430 0.552 2.318 3.367 4.341 5.962 1.000 600 pspc[1,2] 2.185 1.038 0.410 1.510 2.104 2.780 4.479 1.009 600 pspc[1,3] 0.186 1.043 -1.736 -0.499 0.116 0.833 2.446 1.003 470 pspc[1,4] -0.217 0.968 -1.956 -0.916 -0.292 0.333 1.933 1.001 600 pspc[1,5] -0.654 0.902 -2.213 -1.277 -0.686 -0.093 1.234 1.015 130 pspc[1,6] 2.016 1.143 0.114 1.236 1.932 2.718 4.609 1.007 340 pspc[1,7] 0.840 0.757 -0.619 0.331 0.823 1.290 2.452 1.016 130 pspc[1,8] -4.924 0.900 -6.816 -5.460 -4.854 -4.343 -3.273 1.006 270 pspc[1,9] 0.748 0.778 -0.802 0.233 0.752 1.277 2.290 1.004 390 pspc[1,10] 0.191 1.135 -1.931 -0.600 0.137 0.895 2.272 1.000 600 pspc[1,11] -2.635 0.715 -4.066 -3.124 -2.670 -2.121 -1.200 1.019 110 pspc[1,12] -5.552 0.865 -7.198 -6.162 -5.538 -4.950 -3.964 1.002 530 pspc[1,13] 1.974 0.784 0.434 1.433 1.998 2.480 3.566 1.014 130 pspc[1,14] 0.339 1.093 -1.517 -0.394 0.248 0.985 2.901 1.001 600 pspc[1,15] -0.476 0.734 -1.854 -0.960 -0.476 -0.024 1.072 1.002 600 pspc[1,16] 2.413 0.769 0.951 1.885 2.374 2.950 4.108 1.007 240 pspc[1,17] 2.069 1.247 -0.046 1.107 2.052 2.894 4.698 0.999 600 pspc[1,18] 1.683 0.871 0.172 1.072 1.655 2.273 3.440 1.007 290 pspc[1,19] -1.324 0.685 -2.652 -1.763 -1.314 -0.873 -0.035 1.008 240 pspc[1,20] -1.678 0.862 -3.430 -2.192 -1.629 -1.096 -0.096 1.011 160 pspc[1,21] -0.855 0.726 -2.336 -1.316 -0.839 -0.381 0.550 1.005 510 pspc[1,22] 2.931 1.162 0.987 2.121 2.822 3.724 5.421 1.006 270 pspc[1,23] -1.042 0.905 -2.666 -1.618 -1.107 -0.456 0.677 1.003 490 pspc[2,1] 0.017 0.300 -0.545 -0.129 0.025 0.167 0.636 1.001 600 pspc[2,2] -0.002 0.297 -0.667 -0.140 -0.009 0.135 0.648 1.014 600 pspc[2,3] 0.003 0.310 -0.685 -0.142 0.005 0.134 0.673 1.005 330 pspc[2,4] 0.010 0.304 -0.565 -0.144 0.008 0.154 0.621 1.009 470 pspc[2,5] 0.001 0.277 -0.568 -0.121 -0.001 0.134 0.588 1.004 600 pspc[2,6] 0.044 0.322 -0.575 -0.116 0.038 0.192 0.771 1.004 600 pspc[2,7] -0.020 0.265 -0.585 -0.167 -0.005 0.112 0.516 0.999 600 pspc[2,8] -0.047 0.305 -0.760 -0.169 -0.028 0.105 0.546 1.004 600 pspc[2,9] 0.221 0.307 -0.251 0.014 0.160 0.364 0.905 1.005 600 pspc[2,10] 0.011 0.289 -0.635 -0.113 0.010 0.146 0.610 0.999 600 pspc[2,11] -0.051 0.281 -0.644 -0.178 -0.019 0.099 0.505 1.006 330 pspc[2,12] 0.063 0.255 -0.373 -0.085 0.040 0.191 0.664 1.001 600 pspc[2,13] 0.020 0.275 -0.518 -0.123 0.009 0.132 0.675 1.002 600 pspc[2,14] -0.002 0.303 -0.600 -0.161 0.001 0.139 0.661 1.012 250 pspc[2,15] 0.036 0.279 -0.501 -0.111 0.025 0.161 0.597 1.000 600 pspc[2,16] -0.112 0.277 -0.775 -0.242 -0.072 0.056 0.344 0.999 600 pspc[2,17] -0.001 0.303 -0.659 -0.139 0.009 0.132 0.625 1.003 540 pspc[2,18] -0.052 0.306 -0.719 -0.182 -0.045 0.107 0.498 1.006 600 pspc[2,19] -0.157 0.292 -0.870 -0.303 -0.095 0.020 0.281 1.002 600 pspc[2,20] 0.007 0.300 -0.573 -0.140 0.009 0.152 0.701 1.001 600 pspc[2,21] 0.017 0.322 -0.599 -0.127 0.016 0.151 0.638 1.016 150 pspc[2,22] -0.008 0.277 -0.558 -0.151 -0.005 0.128 0.580 1.009 600 pspc[2,23] -0.024 0.306 -0.680 -0.157 -0.007 0.122 0.629 1.000 600 pspc[3,1] 0.009 0.380 -0.710 -0.178 0.002 0.164 0.780 1.005 600 pspc[3,2] 0.053 0.363 -0.636 -0.117 0.034 0.198 0.908 1.004 600 pspc[3,3] 0.100 0.377 -0.571 -0.093 0.051 0.262 0.967 1.019 310 pspc[3,4] 0.002 0.368 -0.740 -0.148 0.004 0.160 0.858 1.003 600 pspc[3,5] 0.046 0.331 -0.668 -0.110 0.019 0.200 0.795 1.017 140 pspc[3,6] 0.045 0.399 -0.722 -0.121 0.018 0.179 1.095 1.008 600 pspc[3,7] -0.087 0.312 -0.861 -0.207 -0.047 0.068 0.466 1.000 600 pspc[3,8] 0.030 0.345 -0.655 -0.141 0.018 0.206 0.767 1.005 600 pspc[3,9] 0.113 0.329 -0.414 -0.062 0.061 0.235 0.984 1.005 600 pspc[3,10] 0.066 0.382 -0.665 -0.103 0.034 0.200 0.933 1.001 600 pspc[3,11] -0.022 0.345 -0.727 -0.196 -0.028 0.126 0.728 1.000 600 pspc[3,12] 0.112 0.312 -0.450 -0.063 0.073 0.265 0.823 1.011 170 pspc[3,13] -0.143 0.382 -1.096 -0.298 -0.084 0.057 0.536 1.009 600 pspc[3,14] -0.019 0.367 -0.882 -0.162 -0.007 0.131 0.814 1.015 390 pspc[3,15] -0.109 0.348 -0.857 -0.272 -0.053 0.084 0.519 1.001 600 pspc[3,16] -0.030 0.326 -0.659 -0.184 -0.024 0.116 0.665 1.001 600 pspc[3,17] -0.016 0.369 -0.805 -0.181 -0.004 0.151 0.766 1.007 600 pspc[3,18] -0.169 0.417 -1.263 -0.303 -0.080 0.068 0.427 1.000 600 pspc[3,19] -0.117 0.310 -0.861 -0.280 -0.076 0.080 0.398 1.011 240 pspc[3,20] 0.033 0.349 -0.735 -0.121 0.025 0.169 0.774 1.001 600 pspc[3,21] 0.016 0.362 -0.673 -0.149 -0.008 0.166 0.877 1.007 600 pspc[3,22] 0.036 0.336 -0.645 -0.120 0.020 0.187 0.774 1.009 520 pspc[3,23] 0.029 0.340 -0.706 -0.125 0.011 0.175 0.747 1.001 600 pspc[4,1] -0.007 0.525 -1.124 -0.182 0.000 0.181 1.051 1.011 600 pspc[4,2] -0.011 0.512 -1.193 -0.170 -0.005 0.184 0.993 1.001 600 pspc[4,3] 0.184 0.521 -0.446 -0.077 0.067 0.331 1.430 1.027 270 pspc[4,4] -0.005 0.574 -1.415 -0.181 0.005 0.194 1.268 1.001 600 pspc[4,5] 0.160 0.468 -0.532 -0.070 0.061 0.314 1.496 1.004 600 pspc[4,6] 0.007 0.579 -1.113 -0.184 -0.012 0.196 1.115 1.009 600 pspc[4,7] 0.022 0.456 -0.882 -0.168 -0.002 0.166 1.018 1.012 600 pspc[4,8] 0.095 0.439 -0.623 -0.112 0.036 0.246 1.109 1.028 410 pspc[4,9] -0.055 0.392 -0.939 -0.207 -0.013 0.135 0.670 1.004 390 pspc[4,10] 0.266 0.531 -0.520 -0.044 0.137 0.498 1.562 1.015 240 pspc[4,11] 0.012 0.451 -0.921 -0.174 -0.007 0.190 1.098 1.003 600 pspc[4,12] -0.066 0.547 -1.673 -0.194 -0.015 0.168 0.850 1.015 150 pspc[4,13] -0.019 0.484 -1.089 -0.189 -0.012 0.158 0.912 1.005 600 pspc[4,14] 0.006 0.559 -1.189 -0.184 0.003 0.182 1.158 1.017 600 pspc[4,15] -0.193 0.490 -1.519 -0.331 -0.085 0.066 0.544 1.000 600 pspc[4,16] -0.079 0.485 -1.277 -0.211 -0.029 0.138 0.769 1.003 460 pspc[4,17] 0.006 0.535 -1.115 -0.175 0.003 0.209 1.123 1.016 550 pspc[4,18] -0.272 0.616 -1.919 -0.402 -0.106 0.052 0.598 1.008 600 pspc[4,19] -0.071 0.355 -0.829 -0.260 -0.062 0.098 0.734 1.008 260 pspc[4,20] -0.005 0.403 -0.892 -0.188 -0.003 0.169 0.879 0.999 600 pspc[4,21] -0.032 0.529 -1.079 -0.214 -0.018 0.147 1.002 1.004 600 pspc[4,22] -0.042 0.513 -1.282 -0.209 -0.002 0.163 0.878 1.018 600 pspc[4,23] 0.098 0.482 -0.760 -0.112 0.041 0.236 1.232 1.012 600 pspc[5,1] -0.581 0.515 -1.715 -0.888 -0.518 -0.217 0.211 1.005 290 pspc[5,2] 0.366 0.421 -0.423 0.087 0.341 0.646 1.268 1.002 600 pspc[5,3] 0.213 0.486 -0.667 -0.108 0.164 0.487 1.191 1.002 600 pspc[5,4] 0.134 0.496 -0.759 -0.194 0.104 0.430 1.186 1.002 600 pspc[5,5] 0.264 0.363 -0.419 0.019 0.250 0.487 1.009 1.011 180 pspc[5,6] 0.255 0.484 -0.753 -0.038 0.251 0.525 1.264 1.005 370 pspc[5,7] -0.546 0.323 -1.250 -0.750 -0.551 -0.330 0.063 1.019 100 pspc[5,8] -0.117 0.324 -0.731 -0.333 -0.106 0.087 0.502 1.003 440 pspc[5,9] -0.373 0.326 -1.029 -0.569 -0.361 -0.155 0.201 1.007 430 pspc[5,10] 0.478 0.555 -0.374 0.090 0.393 0.793 1.897 1.006 400 pspc[5,11] -0.518 0.447 -1.437 -0.812 -0.515 -0.214 0.299 1.012 600 pspc[5,12] 0.668 0.401 -0.019 0.392 0.636 0.904 1.535 1.005 310 pspc[5,13] -0.435 0.347 -1.123 -0.656 -0.439 -0.178 0.204 1.022 91 pspc[5,14] 0.007 0.465 -0.890 -0.308 -0.010 0.295 1.001 1.008 270 pspc[5,15] 0.026 0.349 -0.623 -0.202 0.009 0.216 0.818 1.000 600 pspc[5,16] -0.129 0.328 -0.801 -0.337 -0.111 0.091 0.497 1.012 200 pspc[5,17] 0.051 0.490 -0.913 -0.231 0.056 0.346 1.042 1.000 600 pspc[5,18] 0.402 0.389 -0.252 0.108 0.376 0.662 1.249 1.003 460 pspc[5,19] -0.213 0.326 -0.833 -0.423 -0.199 -0.003 0.456 1.004 390 pspc[5,20] -0.105 0.466 -1.038 -0.396 -0.117 0.158 0.892 1.006 450 pspc[5,21] 0.025 0.409 -0.751 -0.232 0.011 0.293 0.859 1.001 600 pspc[5,22] 0.288 0.479 -0.646 -0.024 0.271 0.558 1.317 1.009 210 pspc[5,23] -0.001 0.425 -0.785 -0.273 -0.022 0.253 0.906 0.999 600 pspc[6,1] 3.566 1.382 0.889 2.583 3.558 4.432 6.205 0.999 600 pspc[6,2] -1.332 1.767 -5.358 -2.104 -1.102 -0.179 1.341 1.007 240 pspc[6,3] -0.920 1.468 -3.710 -1.726 -0.752 0.004 1.723 1.017 120 pspc[6,4] -2.328 2.319 -7.385 -3.718 -2.055 -0.689 1.532 0.999 600 pspc[6,5] -1.642 1.143 -4.089 -2.309 -1.658 -0.811 0.397 1.000 600 pspc[6,6] -1.056 2.098 -6.355 -2.033 -0.748 0.368 2.079 1.004 600 pspc[6,7] 2.042 0.850 0.328 1.472 2.069 2.566 3.725 1.029 68 pspc[6,8] 3.811 0.823 2.264 3.220 3.804 4.366 5.466 1.019 110 pspc[6,9] 0.723 0.886 -0.964 0.128 0.680 1.322 2.407 1.031 65 pspc[6,10] -0.849 1.307 -3.398 -1.675 -0.848 0.075 1.642 1.007 260 pspc[6,11] -0.333 1.891 -5.326 -1.003 0.003 0.878 2.174 1.000 600 pspc[6,12] 9.532 1.075 7.599 8.815 9.501 10.212 11.760 1.018 110 pspc[6,13] 2.567 0.904 0.773 1.896 2.579 3.183 4.289 1.026 190 pspc[6,14] -2.651 2.280 -7.531 -3.975 -2.399 -0.997 0.966 1.000 600 pspc[6,15] 0.331 1.018 -1.584 -0.361 0.360 1.017 2.314 1.015 130 pspc[6,16] 0.677 0.926 -1.032 0.040 0.644 1.359 2.529 1.008 210 pspc[6,17] -3.613 2.145 -8.295 -4.796 -3.272 -2.162 -0.369 1.000 600 pspc[6,18] -2.626 1.503 -5.809 -3.605 -2.501 -1.616 0.048 1.004 340 pspc[6,19] -0.012 0.847 -1.851 -0.585 -0.019 0.550 1.609 1.017 110 pspc[6,20] -0.826 1.327 -3.752 -1.598 -0.787 0.085 1.528 1.011 180 pspc[6,21] -3.123 2.045 -7.869 -4.245 -2.840 -1.699 0.032 1.002 600 pspc[6,22] -2.027 1.613 -6.045 -2.917 -1.860 -0.906 0.539 1.007 490 pspc[6,23] -1.312 1.210 -4.050 -2.035 -1.183 -0.472 0.734 1.005 600 re.site[1] 0.273 0.360 -0.234 0.032 0.197 0.441 1.131 1.010 300 re.site[2] -0.191 0.208 -0.668 -0.307 -0.165 -0.058 0.175 1.000 600 re.site[3] -0.018 0.173 -0.374 -0.116 -0.017 0.070 0.349 1.008 530 re.site[4] 0.099 0.215 -0.304 -0.032 0.086 0.218 0.576 1.006 460 re.site[5] -0.097 0.295 -0.743 -0.270 -0.066 0.081 0.452 1.001 600 re.site[6] -0.241 0.331 -0.992 -0.438 -0.176 -0.020 0.274 1.001 600 re.site[7] 0.006 0.314 -0.726 -0.145 0.012 0.159 0.650 1.004 600 re.site[8] -0.078 0.289 -0.731 -0.210 -0.041 0.078 0.466 1.000 600 re.site[9] 0.256 0.367 -0.284 0.014 0.175 0.444 1.133 1.002 600 re.site[10] 0.221 0.366 -0.330 -0.011 0.127 0.394 1.124 1.001 600 re.site[11] -0.391 0.552 -1.834 -0.612 -0.216 -0.019 0.223 0.999 600 re.site[12] 0.057 0.247 -0.366 -0.095 0.027 0.181 0.656 0.999 600 re.site[13] 0.134 0.279 -0.379 -0.032 0.091 0.278 0.716 1.001 600 re.site[14] 0.098 0.344 -0.639 -0.085 0.063 0.268 0.881 0.999 600 re.site[15] -0.118 0.374 -0.978 -0.264 -0.075 0.071 0.531 1.006 490 re.site[16] -0.036 0.329 -0.756 -0.197 -0.018 0.122 0.631 1.006 270 re.site[17] 0.095 0.318 -0.470 -0.088 0.064 0.256 0.869 1.004 530 re.site[18] 0.086 0.351 -0.559 -0.101 0.052 0.246 0.934 1.017 360 re.site[19] -0.160 0.391 -1.008 -0.321 -0.090 0.063 0.472 0.999 600 re.site[20] 0.006 0.373 -0.703 -0.170 0.010 0.187 0.759 1.004 600 re.year[1] -0.557 0.545 -1.691 -0.852 -0.538 -0.271 0.453 1.030 550 re.year[2] 0.621 0.535 -0.383 0.302 0.616 0.900 1.686 1.036 230 re.year[3] -0.607 0.543 -1.713 -0.894 -0.599 -0.305 0.465 1.031 340 re.year[4] 0.844 0.550 -0.223 0.514 0.836 1.146 1.996 1.035 290 tau[1] 66.886 49.700 10.787 29.455 56.675 91.287 197.852 1.073 47 tau[2] 31.239 48.308 1.460 4.726 12.175 36.502 160.996 0.999 600 tau[3] 1.876 1.594 0.137 0.753 1.481 2.445 6.283 1.004 520 tau.pspc[1] 0.177 0.063 0.077 0.131 0.169 0.213 0.328 0.999 600 tau.pspc[2] 37.190 50.736 2.016 7.934 16.935 44.647 173.635 1.006 600 tau.pspc[3] 33.827 51.788 1.389 5.792 14.685 37.249 201.152 1.004 400 tau.pspc[4] 29.376 47.804 0.558 3.230 11.685 32.366 168.043 1.000 600 tau.pspc[5] 6.377 10.423 1.119 2.413 3.622 6.097 29.073 1.029 90 tau.pspc[6] 0.105 0.041 0.043 0.074 0.101 0.128 0.201 1.000 600 deviance 1814.568 55.160 1717.000 1776.000 1810.500 1850.000 1928.000 1.002 600 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = var(deviance)/2) pD = 1525.2 and DIC = 3339.7 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).