Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/shigetaSturtle/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 3000 iterations (first 1000 discarded), n.thin = 10 n.sims = 600 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff g[1] 0.051 0.074 -0.088 0.002 0.048 0.097 0.206 1.018 110 g[2] 0.053 0.051 -0.054 0.021 0.057 0.086 0.141 1.033 65 g[3] 0.007 0.038 -0.068 -0.018 0.007 0.031 0.081 1.036 65 g[4] -0.047 0.032 -0.113 -0.069 -0.048 -0.024 0.016 1.020 94 g[5] -0.059 0.033 -0.131 -0.079 -0.056 -0.037 0.000 1.119 23 g[6] -0.030 0.033 -0.095 -0.049 -0.030 -0.009 0.037 1.102 25 g[7] 0.002 0.034 -0.057 -0.019 0.002 0.022 0.072 1.086 28 g[8] -0.008 0.032 -0.083 -0.029 -0.005 0.014 0.048 1.093 42 g[9] -0.009 0.031 -0.067 -0.031 -0.009 0.010 0.053 1.014 130 g[10] -0.029 0.034 -0.087 -0.050 -0.031 -0.008 0.043 1.095 25 g[11] -0.028 0.033 -0.094 -0.052 -0.026 -0.005 0.036 1.055 40 g[12] -0.017 0.033 -0.079 -0.039 -0.019 0.005 0.046 1.001 600 g[13] 0.019 0.034 -0.049 -0.002 0.019 0.041 0.087 1.023 120 g[14] 0.008 0.030 -0.056 -0.011 0.009 0.027 0.062 1.004 360 g[15] 0.008 0.032 -0.048 -0.013 0.006 0.028 0.071 1.044 61 g[16] 0.013 0.030 -0.050 -0.007 0.014 0.034 0.071 1.012 200 g[17] 0.032 0.033 -0.038 0.012 0.033 0.054 0.096 1.015 200 g[18] 0.035 0.030 -0.030 0.016 0.036 0.053 0.100 1.028 100 g[19] 0.019 0.031 -0.050 0.003 0.023 0.041 0.071 1.053 56 g[20] 0.025 0.030 -0.033 0.005 0.025 0.045 0.084 1.038 73 g[21] 0.005 0.031 -0.054 -0.015 0.006 0.026 0.065 1.022 130 g[22] -0.009 0.029 -0.068 -0.028 -0.008 0.010 0.047 1.048 45 g[23] 0.003 0.031 -0.058 -0.018 0.005 0.024 0.062 1.000 600 g[24] 0.031 0.034 -0.029 0.007 0.029 0.055 0.100 1.058 46 g[25] 0.048 0.032 -0.011 0.026 0.049 0.066 0.118 1.061 37 g[26] 0.048 0.031 -0.014 0.029 0.048 0.069 0.108 1.014 500 g[27] 0.027 0.031 -0.030 0.008 0.026 0.046 0.094 1.021 600 g[28] 0.008 0.033 -0.061 -0.015 0.008 0.031 0.072 1.025 180 g[29] -0.004 0.033 -0.077 -0.025 0.000 0.020 0.053 1.001 600 g[30] 0.001 0.029 -0.058 -0.017 0.001 0.022 0.053 1.038 97 g[31] 0.015 0.033 -0.054 -0.005 0.018 0.036 0.081 1.039 180 g[32] 0.003 0.029 -0.058 -0.017 0.003 0.023 0.058 1.019 120 g[33] -0.020 0.030 -0.084 -0.040 -0.018 0.000 0.036 1.016 120 g[34] -0.030 0.030 -0.090 -0.048 -0.032 -0.009 0.028 1.003 410 g[35] -0.041 0.031 -0.095 -0.060 -0.043 -0.020 0.024 1.034 82 g[36] -0.036 0.033 -0.100 -0.055 -0.037 -0.018 0.032 1.025 370 g[37] -0.042 0.030 -0.101 -0.062 -0.042 -0.020 0.015 1.015 160 g[38] -0.048 0.031 -0.110 -0.067 -0.050 -0.028 0.016 1.024 110 g[39] -0.065 0.030 -0.121 -0.086 -0.066 -0.045 -0.005 1.025 230 g[40] -0.058 0.033 -0.120 -0.080 -0.059 -0.037 0.008 1.016 270 g[41] -0.068 0.030 -0.127 -0.087 -0.069 -0.049 -0.007 1.086 27 g[42] -0.070 0.031 -0.139 -0.089 -0.071 -0.048 -0.011 1.017 140 g[43] -0.081 0.036 -0.150 -0.107 -0.081 -0.056 -0.010 1.016 170 g[44] -0.093 0.033 -0.164 -0.114 -0.090 -0.070 -0.035 1.057 49 g[45] -0.116 0.035 -0.177 -0.139 -0.119 -0.095 -0.048 1.013 590 g[46] -0.122 0.037 -0.196 -0.144 -0.123 -0.100 -0.047 1.012 180 g[47] -0.133 0.036 -0.211 -0.156 -0.131 -0.111 -0.063 1.016 210 g[48] -0.147 0.035 -0.226 -0.169 -0.144 -0.123 -0.081 1.043 64 g[49] -0.157 0.045 -0.253 -0.181 -0.154 -0.128 -0.081 1.324 11 g[50] -0.163 0.061 -0.295 -0.201 -0.161 -0.126 -0.049 1.383 9 n1 5.178 0.062 5.073 5.136 5.170 5.219 5.306 1.015 130 tau 417.546 169.291 171.860 293.875 384.000 515.200 848.667 1.015 410 n[1] 5.178 0.062 5.073 5.136 5.170 5.219 5.306 1.015 130 n[2] 5.232 0.048 5.152 5.198 5.227 5.267 5.328 1.040 54 n[3] 5.239 0.047 5.155 5.201 5.238 5.272 5.333 1.079 30 n[4] 5.191 0.044 5.107 5.160 5.195 5.222 5.278 1.074 32 n[5] 5.131 0.041 5.052 5.102 5.135 5.159 5.206 1.017 140 n[6] 5.102 0.041 5.020 5.073 5.101 5.128 5.180 1.050 53 n[7] 5.105 0.040 5.029 5.077 5.105 5.133 5.182 1.070 37 n[8] 5.096 0.041 5.007 5.071 5.097 5.121 5.172 1.167 16 n[9] 5.088 0.042 5.004 5.058 5.090 5.119 5.163 1.087 30 n[10] 5.059 0.041 4.980 5.030 5.057 5.088 5.135 1.004 600 n[11] 5.030 0.041 4.956 5.002 5.030 5.061 5.109 1.032 94 n[12] 5.013 0.041 4.939 4.985 5.009 5.037 5.100 1.023 98 n[13] 5.033 0.044 4.945 5.005 5.033 5.061 5.126 1.053 47 n[14] 5.040 0.044 4.962 5.008 5.033 5.071 5.134 1.040 70 n[15] 5.048 0.046 4.964 5.015 5.045 5.081 5.140 1.018 460 n[16] 5.061 0.044 4.974 5.032 5.058 5.087 5.151 1.020 510 n[17] 5.093 0.040 5.013 5.067 5.092 5.119 5.176 1.004 600 n[18] 5.128 0.040 5.053 5.099 5.127 5.155 5.209 1.008 340 n[19] 5.147 0.042 5.060 5.122 5.147 5.176 5.225 1.037 200 n[20] 5.173 0.037 5.103 5.146 5.174 5.200 5.242 1.042 83 n[21] 5.179 0.035 5.108 5.156 5.178 5.204 5.247 1.115 27 n[22] 5.169 0.037 5.099 5.146 5.168 5.194 5.246 1.182 16 n[23] 5.172 0.039 5.087 5.149 5.173 5.196 5.245 1.145 18 n[24] 5.203 0.041 5.125 5.174 5.203 5.234 5.283 1.037 59 n[25] 5.251 0.042 5.172 5.222 5.249 5.279 5.337 1.040 280 n[26] 5.299 0.043 5.220 5.269 5.296 5.331 5.385 1.019 430 n[27] 5.326 0.040 5.251 5.300 5.325 5.353 5.403 1.014 550 n[28] 5.333 0.040 5.257 5.305 5.332 5.359 5.413 1.044 160 n[29] 5.329 0.036 5.266 5.304 5.327 5.353 5.406 1.024 210 n[30] 5.330 0.032 5.266 5.308 5.328 5.351 5.395 1.060 39 n[31] 5.346 0.034 5.273 5.326 5.348 5.367 5.408 1.037 60 n[32] 5.349 0.035 5.276 5.327 5.347 5.373 5.416 1.003 470 n[33] 5.329 0.038 5.254 5.305 5.329 5.353 5.404 1.001 600 n[34] 5.300 0.040 5.225 5.272 5.299 5.326 5.383 1.005 290 n[35] 5.258 0.040 5.189 5.228 5.256 5.286 5.337 1.008 210 n[36] 5.223 0.039 5.147 5.195 5.222 5.249 5.299 1.025 95 n[37] 5.181 0.042 5.100 5.152 5.178 5.210 5.258 1.043 60 n[38] 5.132 0.039 5.062 5.106 5.132 5.159 5.212 1.051 47 n[39] 5.067 0.035 4.994 5.044 5.065 5.089 5.132 1.032 69 n[40] 5.008 0.037 4.941 4.982 5.007 5.033 5.080 1.019 160 n[41] 4.939 0.038 4.868 4.913 4.939 4.964 5.012 1.029 89 n[42] 4.870 0.033 4.810 4.846 4.868 4.891 4.936 1.075 31 n[43] 4.789 0.043 4.703 4.757 4.791 4.818 4.869 1.060 39 n[44] 4.696 0.052 4.602 4.656 4.699 4.738 4.791 1.131 22 n[45] 4.580 0.052 4.488 4.541 4.581 4.619 4.683 1.176 17 n[46] 4.458 0.049 4.365 4.421 4.454 4.495 4.554 1.124 21 n[47] 4.324 0.054 4.235 4.286 4.318 4.362 4.431 1.142 31 n[48] 4.177 0.057 4.049 4.143 4.174 4.210 4.294 1.145 120 n[49] 4.020 0.066 3.873 3.981 4.021 4.062 4.152 1.118 64 n[50] 3.857 0.097 3.656 3.796 3.862 3.918 4.056 1.308 12 deviance 385.931 6.181 375.197 381.700 385.700 389.525 400.600 1.086 28 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 14.3 and DIC = 400.3 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).