Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/miyata/model2007/winbugs/model.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 4000 iterations (first 2000 discarded), n.thin = 10 n.sims = 600 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff bb[1] 0.018 0.496 -1.045 -0.317 0.018 0.371 1.012 1.004 360 bb[2] 1.428 0.257 0.958 1.247 1.411 1.582 1.964 1.031 130 bb[3] 1.111 0.127 0.892 1.033 1.103 1.168 1.415 1.043 86 bb[4] 0.280 0.038 0.207 0.255 0.280 0.307 0.350 1.008 210 bb[5] -0.446 0.065 -0.575 -0.487 -0.443 -0.409 -0.311 1.066 53 bb[6] -1.484 0.213 -1.862 -1.638 -1.500 -1.353 -1.026 1.049 54 bb[7] -0.479 0.047 -0.570 -0.511 -0.479 -0.447 -0.389 0.999 600 bb[8] 4.932 0.038 4.862 4.906 4.931 4.960 5.003 1.006 510 bb[9] -0.211 0.023 -0.259 -0.227 -0.210 -0.195 -0.170 1.000 600 bb[10] -8.493 0.068 -8.648 -8.531 -8.490 -8.448 -8.363 1.149 22 bb[11] 3.600 0.122 3.371 3.520 3.600 3.676 3.846 1.006 600 bb[12] -0.124 0.052 -0.229 -0.156 -0.121 -0.091 -0.017 1.000 600 bs[1,1] 0.003 0.342 -0.682 -0.159 0.018 0.165 0.746 1.016 290 bs[1,2] 0.133 0.275 -0.425 -0.041 0.159 0.318 0.621 1.021 160 bs[1,3] -0.180 0.143 -0.528 -0.261 -0.172 -0.089 0.082 1.052 62 bs[1,4] 0.035 0.070 -0.111 -0.009 0.034 0.080 0.167 1.069 33 bs[1,5] -0.044 0.107 -0.257 -0.113 -0.040 0.026 0.175 1.154 18 bs[1,6] 0.611 0.221 0.165 0.468 0.623 0.769 1.021 1.059 42 bs[1,7] -0.133 0.088 -0.319 -0.191 -0.131 -0.074 0.036 1.003 440 bs[1,8] 0.096 0.045 0.004 0.066 0.097 0.126 0.179 1.002 600 bs[1,9] -0.033 0.036 -0.098 -0.058 -0.033 -0.009 0.043 1.006 340 bs[1,10] 0.128 0.082 -0.029 0.073 0.126 0.183 0.307 1.077 36 bs[1,11] 0.000 0.140 -0.296 -0.089 -0.002 0.096 0.252 1.002 560 bs[1,12] 0.164 0.087 -0.001 0.106 0.160 0.218 0.358 1.000 600 bs[2,1] -0.029 0.345 -0.887 -0.162 -0.008 0.135 0.620 1.006 600 bs[2,2] -1.016 0.272 -1.553 -1.186 -1.001 -0.819 -0.532 1.022 220 bs[2,3] -0.530 0.146 -0.879 -0.616 -0.516 -0.435 -0.266 1.056 66 bs[2,4] -0.088 0.065 -0.215 -0.132 -0.085 -0.047 0.048 1.026 82 bs[2,5] -0.038 0.089 -0.215 -0.094 -0.038 0.018 0.149 1.053 46 bs[2,6] -0.035 0.232 -0.527 -0.188 -0.020 0.121 0.392 1.031 79 bs[2,7] -0.106 0.074 -0.253 -0.153 -0.102 -0.059 0.040 1.002 600 bs[2,8] 0.180 0.043 0.099 0.147 0.180 0.210 0.262 1.000 600 bs[2,9] 0.101 0.034 0.037 0.077 0.100 0.121 0.172 1.005 600 bs[2,10] 0.183 0.078 0.035 0.130 0.186 0.232 0.342 1.114 25 bs[2,11] 0.191 0.143 -0.079 0.098 0.191 0.288 0.470 1.004 600 bs[2,12] -0.086 0.080 -0.245 -0.140 -0.082 -0.035 0.076 0.999 600 bs[3,1] -0.025 0.360 -0.765 -0.189 -0.012 0.136 0.832 1.004 600 bs[3,2] -0.415 0.273 -0.960 -0.585 -0.395 -0.232 0.096 1.017 230 bs[3,3] -0.175 0.133 -0.478 -0.245 -0.166 -0.090 0.074 1.052 70 bs[3,4] -0.124 0.059 -0.249 -0.163 -0.124 -0.081 -0.009 1.060 38 bs[3,5] 0.123 0.088 -0.052 0.069 0.120 0.180 0.292 1.022 94 bs[3,6] -0.398 0.221 -0.861 -0.543 -0.378 -0.239 0.018 1.039 78 bs[3,7] 0.182 0.090 0.011 0.121 0.179 0.238 0.366 1.001 600 bs[3,8] -0.032 0.044 -0.118 -0.062 -0.032 -0.002 0.050 1.002 600 bs[3,9] 0.000 0.032 -0.062 -0.021 0.000 0.022 0.062 0.999 600 bs[3,10] -0.187 0.085 -0.361 -0.239 -0.193 -0.138 -0.007 1.067 44 bs[3,11] 0.406 0.142 0.138 0.308 0.411 0.502 0.687 1.010 600 bs[3,12] 0.128 0.075 -0.019 0.081 0.129 0.177 0.278 1.004 600 bs[4,1] -0.004 0.387 -0.834 -0.166 0.008 0.156 0.800 1.002 600 bs[4,2] -0.533 0.277 -1.093 -0.704 -0.535 -0.334 -0.026 1.017 270 bs[4,3] -0.302 0.150 -0.631 -0.389 -0.297 -0.198 -0.031 1.041 99 bs[4,4] 0.102 0.071 -0.029 0.054 0.096 0.144 0.258 1.005 300 bs[4,5] -0.167 0.125 -0.424 -0.246 -0.162 -0.083 0.060 1.138 20 bs[4,6] -0.435 0.225 -0.916 -0.578 -0.424 -0.278 -0.012 1.054 51 bs[4,7] -0.122 0.096 -0.326 -0.178 -0.120 -0.059 0.056 1.001 600 bs[4,8] 0.128 0.046 0.037 0.096 0.127 0.161 0.213 1.004 420 bs[4,9] 0.027 0.038 -0.048 0.001 0.027 0.053 0.100 1.001 600 bs[4,10] 0.089 0.091 -0.095 0.026 0.091 0.150 0.265 1.064 36 bs[4,11] 0.111 0.147 -0.177 0.019 0.107 0.209 0.399 1.002 600 bs[4,12] -0.065 0.096 -0.267 -0.125 -0.063 0.002 0.117 1.000 600 bs[5,1] 0.002 0.365 -0.703 -0.167 -0.006 0.165 0.828 1.005 410 bs[5,2] -0.241 0.271 -0.806 -0.422 -0.224 -0.052 0.273 1.023 150 bs[5,3] 0.107 0.138 -0.236 0.029 0.116 0.196 0.355 1.051 57 bs[5,4] 0.033 0.072 -0.102 -0.015 0.031 0.082 0.179 1.007 250 bs[5,5] -0.035 0.097 -0.219 -0.101 -0.042 0.024 0.169 1.017 220 bs[5,6] 0.700 0.231 0.193 0.563 0.713 0.852 1.089 1.040 64 bs[5,7] -0.130 0.083 -0.304 -0.184 -0.125 -0.077 0.035 1.001 600 bs[5,8] -0.041 0.045 -0.130 -0.072 -0.040 -0.010 0.046 1.000 600 bs[5,9] 0.005 0.037 -0.065 -0.019 0.006 0.028 0.075 1.001 600 bs[5,10] 0.682 0.092 0.517 0.621 0.673 0.739 0.881 1.131 22 bs[5,11] -0.753 0.146 -1.063 -0.842 -0.746 -0.662 -0.480 1.007 600 bs[5,12] -0.076 0.099 -0.268 -0.138 -0.068 -0.010 0.125 1.003 480 bs[6,1] -0.032 0.384 -0.829 -0.201 -0.024 0.143 0.776 1.011 600 bs[6,2] 0.468 0.279 -0.068 0.276 0.474 0.646 1.024 1.016 310 bs[6,3] 0.227 0.150 -0.117 0.146 0.236 0.323 0.503 1.047 69 bs[6,4] -0.010 0.065 -0.143 -0.054 -0.011 0.038 0.109 1.009 230 bs[6,5] 0.114 0.102 -0.089 0.049 0.110 0.183 0.319 1.038 68 bs[6,6] -0.187 0.234 -0.689 -0.348 -0.167 -0.024 0.213 1.052 48 bs[6,7] 0.009 0.096 -0.188 -0.052 0.015 0.067 0.191 1.004 400 bs[6,8] -0.002 0.045 -0.091 -0.033 -0.002 0.030 0.082 1.005 430 bs[6,9] 0.018 0.037 -0.056 -0.008 0.019 0.044 0.084 1.000 600 bs[6,10] -0.223 0.083 -0.371 -0.281 -0.227 -0.172 -0.060 1.050 48 bs[6,11] 0.091 0.145 -0.198 -0.008 0.092 0.183 0.377 1.011 210 bs[6,12] -0.063 0.080 -0.228 -0.117 -0.064 -0.012 0.093 1.001 600 bs[7,1] -0.013 0.347 -0.826 -0.157 -0.025 0.125 0.755 1.004 600 bs[7,2] 2.228 0.282 1.658 2.039 2.247 2.435 2.740 1.016 600 bs[7,3] 1.010 0.269 0.510 0.821 1.008 1.188 1.556 1.000 600 bs[7,4] -0.050 0.067 -0.181 -0.097 -0.051 -0.005 0.075 1.015 130 bs[7,5] 0.234 0.118 0.010 0.150 0.234 0.312 0.461 1.011 380 bs[7,6] 1.479 0.273 0.949 1.297 1.490 1.664 1.988 1.032 85 bs[7,7] 0.128 0.095 -0.050 0.063 0.123 0.186 0.332 1.005 380 bs[7,8] -0.058 0.048 -0.153 -0.089 -0.056 -0.024 0.038 1.006 600 bs[7,9] -0.034 0.039 -0.121 -0.061 -0.032 -0.005 0.035 1.000 600 bs[7,10] -0.544 0.091 -0.720 -0.608 -0.542 -0.484 -0.374 1.087 30 bs[7,11] -0.669 0.147 -0.944 -0.770 -0.665 -0.576 -0.381 1.001 600 bs[7,12] -0.228 0.096 -0.424 -0.289 -0.225 -0.162 -0.046 1.008 250 bs[8,1] 0.031 0.375 -0.682 -0.129 0.002 0.164 0.873 1.002 550 bs[8,2] -0.888 0.275 -1.483 -1.061 -0.884 -0.680 -0.418 1.018 380 bs[8,3] -0.257 0.143 -0.586 -0.342 -0.247 -0.164 0.013 1.022 220 bs[8,4] -0.034 0.062 -0.150 -0.079 -0.034 0.005 0.082 1.049 44 bs[8,5] -0.067 0.090 -0.263 -0.122 -0.061 -0.009 0.106 1.020 120 bs[8,6] -0.949 0.233 -1.458 -1.085 -0.927 -0.775 -0.556 1.046 56 bs[8,7] -0.064 0.073 -0.210 -0.109 -0.064 -0.018 0.074 1.000 600 bs[8,8] 0.191 0.046 0.106 0.158 0.193 0.225 0.287 1.006 530 bs[8,9] -0.044 0.033 -0.110 -0.066 -0.045 -0.021 0.018 1.003 600 bs[8,10] -0.048 0.090 -0.214 -0.110 -0.049 0.008 0.151 1.079 37 bs[8,11] 0.378 0.143 0.100 0.282 0.377 0.475 0.685 1.005 420 bs[8,12] -0.044 0.080 -0.202 -0.100 -0.042 0.011 0.117 1.001 600 bs[9,1] 0.022 0.377 -0.787 -0.132 0.012 0.164 0.844 1.019 600 bs[9,2] 0.514 0.288 -0.096 0.316 0.521 0.713 1.033 1.026 160 bs[9,3] -0.057 0.159 -0.414 -0.150 -0.053 0.054 0.229 1.095 31 bs[9,4] -0.006 0.066 -0.141 -0.050 -0.007 0.038 0.119 1.049 46 bs[9,5] -0.287 0.121 -0.525 -0.369 -0.281 -0.204 -0.076 1.060 38 bs[9,6] 0.335 0.232 -0.150 0.183 0.335 0.493 0.764 1.036 65 bs[9,7] -0.019 0.088 -0.186 -0.077 -0.019 0.039 0.155 0.999 600 bs[9,8] 0.001 0.049 -0.099 -0.031 0.000 0.035 0.093 1.005 400 bs[9,9] 0.011 0.039 -0.067 -0.014 0.010 0.037 0.083 1.004 340 bs[9,10] -0.034 0.092 -0.204 -0.096 -0.036 0.023 0.154 1.046 65 bs[9,11] -0.024 0.149 -0.320 -0.121 -0.017 0.082 0.243 1.006 260 bs[9,12] 0.010 0.088 -0.154 -0.048 0.007 0.069 0.183 1.001 600 bs[10,1] -0.009 0.367 -0.727 -0.175 -0.002 0.137 0.696 1.007 410 bs[10,2] 0.542 0.276 -0.047 0.371 0.545 0.735 1.070 1.031 110 bs[10,3] 0.320 0.160 -0.018 0.216 0.339 0.424 0.605 1.134 23 bs[10,4] 0.075 0.066 -0.055 0.031 0.074 0.118 0.210 1.012 150 bs[10,5] -0.183 0.100 -0.386 -0.258 -0.177 -0.115 0.006 1.002 510 bs[10,6] -1.195 0.232 -1.678 -1.343 -1.186 -1.034 -0.749 1.033 92 bs[10,7] 0.102 0.084 -0.069 0.050 0.104 0.154 0.285 1.002 600 bs[10,8] -0.170 0.045 -0.258 -0.201 -0.169 -0.140 -0.084 1.005 460 bs[10,9] 0.044 0.037 -0.032 0.018 0.045 0.068 0.121 1.012 150 bs[10,10] 0.218 0.087 0.059 0.158 0.213 0.272 0.405 1.112 24 bs[10,11] -0.094 0.147 -0.375 -0.180 -0.096 0.001 0.183 1.015 290 bs[10,12] -0.010 0.080 -0.183 -0.058 -0.011 0.044 0.153 1.001 600 bs[11,1] -0.028 0.357 -0.717 -0.221 -0.020 0.127 0.801 1.000 600 bs[11,2] -0.706 0.274 -1.249 -0.884 -0.693 -0.514 -0.223 1.013 340 bs[11,3] -0.501 0.147 -0.853 -0.580 -0.493 -0.406 -0.248 1.043 220 bs[11,4] 0.062 0.064 -0.062 0.020 0.063 0.098 0.197 1.003 600 bs[11,5] 0.024 0.105 -0.180 -0.037 0.020 0.088 0.252 1.041 91 bs[11,6] -0.664 0.227 -1.149 -0.802 -0.655 -0.508 -0.256 1.035 80 bs[11,7] -0.016 0.095 -0.208 -0.080 -0.020 0.043 0.175 1.004 480 bs[11,8] -0.187 0.048 -0.281 -0.219 -0.184 -0.155 -0.100 1.004 350 bs[11,9] 0.009 0.033 -0.053 -0.012 0.009 0.028 0.074 0.999 600 bs[11,10] 0.172 0.087 0.001 0.113 0.168 0.228 0.340 1.097 28 bs[11,11] 0.256 0.143 -0.012 0.158 0.264 0.351 0.524 1.009 230 bs[11,12] -0.012 0.083 -0.185 -0.065 -0.010 0.041 0.143 0.999 600 bs[12,1] 0.000 0.353 -0.747 -0.134 -0.009 0.153 0.768 1.007 340 bs[12,2] -0.237 0.280 -0.806 -0.420 -0.238 -0.044 0.279 1.030 100 bs[12,3] -0.089 0.141 -0.417 -0.163 -0.081 0.009 0.151 1.067 41 bs[12,4] -0.057 0.071 -0.193 -0.102 -0.059 -0.013 0.083 1.072 33 bs[12,5] 0.187 0.096 0.010 0.121 0.186 0.252 0.386 1.228 13 bs[12,6] 0.279 0.225 -0.196 0.140 0.296 0.432 0.699 1.041 63 bs[12,7] 0.120 0.086 -0.049 0.060 0.120 0.175 0.296 1.002 600 bs[12,8] -0.005 0.048 -0.105 -0.038 -0.005 0.029 0.088 1.000 600 bs[12,9] -0.038 0.039 -0.115 -0.064 -0.036 -0.012 0.040 1.017 190 bs[12,10] -0.141 0.090 -0.324 -0.200 -0.139 -0.081 0.048 1.054 49 bs[12,11] -0.109 0.143 -0.403 -0.198 -0.108 -0.007 0.135 1.005 580 bs[12,12] 0.212 0.097 0.024 0.145 0.204 0.275 0.417 1.001 600 bs[13,1] 0.013 0.368 -0.794 -0.143 0.002 0.144 0.837 1.011 600 bs[13,2] 0.047 0.277 -0.528 -0.138 0.059 0.234 0.553 1.017 270 bs[13,3] -0.013 0.151 -0.343 -0.105 -0.007 0.090 0.256 1.026 120 bs[13,4] 0.037 0.081 -0.113 -0.017 0.031 0.090 0.202 1.012 150 bs[13,5] 0.105 0.094 -0.071 0.045 0.105 0.165 0.291 1.155 17 bs[13,6] -0.347 0.232 -0.833 -0.497 -0.345 -0.179 0.081 1.039 66 bs[13,7] 0.058 0.078 -0.092 0.007 0.058 0.107 0.218 1.008 200 bs[13,8] -0.107 0.058 -0.213 -0.148 -0.107 -0.073 0.015 1.000 600 bs[13,9] -0.042 0.049 -0.142 -0.074 -0.039 -0.007 0.049 1.004 440 bs[13,10] 0.137 0.089 -0.027 0.075 0.134 0.195 0.318 1.018 130 bs[13,11] 0.203 0.168 -0.125 0.097 0.206 0.304 0.523 1.012 160 bs[13,12] 0.050 0.127 -0.185 -0.035 0.038 0.128 0.311 1.003 540 tau.bs[1] 35.499 49.134 1.189 6.096 14.659 46.094 179.486 1.003 600 tau.bs[2] 1.362 0.544 0.517 0.941 1.296 1.724 2.585 1.001 600 tau.bs[3] 6.167 3.300 1.952 3.814 5.492 7.559 14.630 1.013 250 tau.bs[4] 114.315 67.746 30.762 67.115 97.885 145.200 274.262 1.010 180 tau.bs[5] 33.945 20.233 10.329 19.890 29.235 43.100 86.543 1.080 30 tau.bs[6] 1.881 0.814 0.711 1.236 1.733 2.382 3.657 1.005 460 tau.bs[7] 58.144 35.217 15.779 35.565 50.010 72.960 151.747 1.003 600 tau.bs[8] 60.233 25.378 22.040 41.525 56.910 76.667 119.702 0.999 600 tau.bs[9] 230.805 107.559 84.307 148.900 212.450 290.174 494.020 1.003 440 tau.bs[10] 11.946 4.894 4.393 8.281 11.425 14.747 23.092 1.002 600 tau.bs[11] 7.526 3.328 2.560 5.168 6.913 9.382 16.014 1.002 600 tau.bs[12] 53.049 33.397 14.482 30.652 44.600 66.742 139.964 1.004 460 tau[1] 5.223 1.962 3.127 4.195 4.860 5.745 9.089 1.036 120 tau[2] 2.347 0.149 2.086 2.245 2.337 2.438 2.638 1.003 430 tau[3] 24649.217 1481.721 21999.750 23600.000 24539.998 25702.500 27581.498 1.000 600 tau[4] 51.010 6.147 39.579 46.605 50.700 54.697 64.387 1.020 94 tau[5] 7.466 0.506 6.525 7.126 7.456 7.786 8.515 1.002 600 tau[6] 411.390 24.136 367.595 393.675 411.700 427.125 462.905 1.001 600 tau[7] 10.087 0.972 8.390 9.410 10.050 10.690 12.170 1.175 16 tau[8] 4.028 0.267 3.551 3.845 4.008 4.206 4.576 0.999 600 tau[9] 6.471 0.458 5.626 6.167 6.438 6.791 7.390 1.004 370 deviance -17537.000 174.484 -17900.000 -17650.000 -17530.000 -17420.000 -17190.000 1.011 170 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 2256.4 and DIC = -15280.4 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).