Inference for Bugs model at "/home/kubo/public_html/ce/2008/car/model1.bug.txt", fit using WinBUGS, 3 chains, each with 200 iterations (first 100 discarded) n.sims = 300 iterations saved mean sd 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% Rhat n.eff beta 2.268 0.052 2.161 2.240 2.269 2.306 2.363 1.038 62 re[1] -1.241 0.309 -1.942 -1.416 -1.228 -1.028 -0.681 1.022 93 re[2] -1.086 0.247 -1.585 -1.263 -1.077 -0.910 -0.647 1.035 59 re[3] -0.896 0.232 -1.361 -1.061 -0.880 -0.753 -0.423 1.053 46 re[4] -0.596 0.196 -0.973 -0.746 -0.579 -0.455 -0.220 1.039 53 re[5] -0.297 0.207 -0.716 -0.429 -0.312 -0.129 0.065 1.015 190 re[6] 0.035 0.198 -0.368 -0.097 0.044 0.164 0.404 1.027 140 re[7] 0.040 0.184 -0.313 -0.091 0.057 0.169 0.371 1.010 240 re[8] 0.177 0.180 -0.179 0.057 0.180 0.299 0.510 0.998 300 re[9] 0.190 0.177 -0.159 0.063 0.182 0.314 0.530 1.012 200 re[10] 0.242 0.161 -0.094 0.138 0.237 0.335 0.563 1.002 300 re[11] 0.426 0.166 0.127 0.310 0.424 0.543 0.771 1.009 180 re[12] 0.513 0.176 0.171 0.384 0.502 0.628 0.886 1.032 130 re[13] 0.496 0.177 0.191 0.372 0.493 0.619 0.855 1.011 180 re[14] 0.586 0.144 0.292 0.495 0.586 0.680 0.888 1.000 300 re[15] 0.594 0.145 0.345 0.493 0.585 0.694 0.897 1.004 260 re[16] 0.536 0.142 0.270 0.441 0.539 0.634 0.820 1.127 44 re[17] 0.426 0.169 0.047 0.323 0.450 0.526 0.750 1.014 130 re[18] 0.316 0.172 -0.023 0.187 0.317 0.427 0.651 1.017 100 re[19] 0.246 0.163 -0.087 0.132 0.260 0.376 0.503 1.024 80 re[20] 0.147 0.167 -0.189 0.039 0.141 0.261 0.500 1.002 300 re[21] 0.202 0.171 -0.149 0.095 0.211 0.314 0.513 1.014 110 re[22] 0.328 0.164 0.017 0.225 0.322 0.420 0.674 1.020 94 re[23] 0.422 0.164 0.116 0.308 0.417 0.534 0.749 1.035 56 re[24] 0.307 0.160 0.034 0.200 0.301 0.404 0.617 1.016 180 re[25] 0.307 0.167 -0.019 0.204 0.292 0.424 0.648 1.011 150 re[26] 0.420 0.173 0.092 0.299 0.424 0.531 0.762 1.008 160 re[27] 0.404 0.164 0.077 0.284 0.417 0.500 0.719 1.011 170 re[28] 0.403 0.158 0.090 0.291 0.409 0.515 0.698 1.040 64 re[29] 0.327 0.183 -0.059 0.218 0.326 0.439 0.676 1.077 31 re[30] 0.132 0.190 -0.231 -0.001 0.129 0.256 0.508 1.036 63 re[31] 0.040 0.175 -0.315 -0.079 0.049 0.148 0.386 1.001 300 re[32] 0.185 0.169 -0.100 0.071 0.167 0.296 0.529 1.016 160 re[33] 0.131 0.171 -0.199 0.018 0.125 0.248 0.456 1.013 190 re[34] 0.130 0.182 -0.248 0.037 0.132 0.237 0.461 1.017 110 re[35] 0.184 0.177 -0.151 0.074 0.179 0.301 0.515 1.018 110 re[36] 0.103 0.172 -0.265 -0.010 0.119 0.227 0.384 1.046 44 re[37] 0.245 0.180 -0.088 0.111 0.253 0.358 0.598 1.048 43 re[38] 0.297 0.176 -0.023 0.173 0.288 0.421 0.621 1.004 250 re[39] 0.290 0.175 -0.084 0.189 0.288 0.403 0.629 0.998 300 re[40] 0.254 0.174 -0.118 0.149 0.266 0.369 0.561 1.052 41 re[41] -0.003 0.192 -0.357 -0.128 0.000 0.137 0.348 1.041 50 re[42] -0.158 0.185 -0.509 -0.279 -0.155 -0.053 0.198 1.037 61 re[43] -0.239 0.201 -0.593 -0.365 -0.242 -0.098 0.141 1.042 47 re[44] -0.469 0.190 -0.858 -0.583 -0.457 -0.355 -0.114 1.042 61 re[45] -0.573 0.195 -0.937 -0.711 -0.570 -0.436 -0.224 1.028 75 re[46] -0.650 0.204 -1.057 -0.779 -0.652 -0.532 -0.212 1.014 110 re[47] -0.727 0.214 -1.179 -0.874 -0.717 -0.570 -0.354 1.012 150 re[48] -0.892 0.243 -1.327 -1.057 -0.916 -0.726 -0.398 1.013 130 re[49] -1.062 0.302 -1.684 -1.238 -1.052 -0.861 -0.510 1.013 120 re[50] -1.192 0.345 -1.888 -1.417 -1.211 -0.938 -0.560 1.018 120 tau 19.645 7.394 9.106 14.187 18.555 23.402 37.559 1.035 93 deviance 246.834 6.559 234.932 242.500 246.600 250.700 260.720 1.000 300 For each parameter, n.eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor (at convergence, Rhat=1). DIC info (using the rule, pD = Dbar-Dhat) pD = 17.9 and DIC = 264.7 DIC is an estimate of expected predictive error (lower deviance is better).